Zohran Mamdani’s Chances of Winning NYC Mayoral Race Hit New High %%page%% %%sep%% %%sitename%% Zohran Mamdani’s chances of winning NYC mayoral race hit new high

Zohran Mamdani chances of winning New York City’s upcoming mayoral election have hit a new high, betting odds show.

According to online gambling website Polymarket, a platform where users can place bets on the likelihood of world events, the New York assemblymember and self-described democratic socialist has a large lead over his rivals, independent Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa.

Newsweek reached out to Mamdani, Cuomo and Sliwa by email to comment on this story outside of normal business hours.

Why It Matters

The New York mayoral race has attracted national attention. Whoever wins will have huge influence over America’s most populous city and preside over a big shift in city politics and policy priorities on critical issues for New Yorkers, from affordability and crime to the city’s relationship with President Donald Trump and the National Democratic Party.

Mamdani has emerged as a leading candidate among the city’s most progressive voters in the mayoral election due to policy proposals that include rent freezes and city-owned grocery stores to combat rising grocery costs. He has been endorsed by New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democrat, and Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.

If Mamdani wins, he would also become the city’s first Muslim mayor.

What To Know

According to the odds at the time of writing, Mamdani is in the lead with 92.8 percent of the vote share. Cuomo, the former governor who entered the race as an independent after losing to Mamdani in the Democratic primary, is second with 5.9 percent of the share. Republican candidate Sliwa, a talk-show host and founder of volunteer organization the Guardian Angels, is trailing with 0.7 percent of the vote.

Last week, on October 13, Mamdani’s odds were at 88.3 percent and Cuomo’s were 10.8 percent, so Mamdani’s odds have increased by 4.5 percent in one week.

Meanwhile, recent polling has also indicated Mamdani will win the election. A Fox News poll of 1,003 registered New York voters conducted over October 11-14 put Mamdani at 52 percent, well ahead of Cuomo with 28 percent and Sliwa at 14 percent.

Speaking to Newsweek, Mark Shanahan who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K. said: “This is certainly Mamdani’s race to lose now, but as ever, it’s never over ’til it’s over. His platform remains well to the left of mainstream Democrat ideology and there can be a great difference between what voters say to the pollsters and what they actually do when they go to vote.

“But two things favor Mamdani hugely. First, New York is a Democrat city. Sliwa, the Republican candidate is colorful and interesting, but he’s not going to win and he is taking few votes from Mandani. The second key factor is the rejection of elite politics—and Cuomo is firmly from the elite. New Yorkers are making it pretty clear that they’ve seen it all before with Cuomo and don’t want to see it again.”

What People Are Saying

At a recent rally, Zohran Mamdani said: ““For years, you have fought the good fight for New Yorkers, and now it’s our time to fight for you.”

President Donald Trump told reporters recently: “The Mamdani thing is a disaster waiting to happen. We can’t have a communist in charge of a great, supposedly free enterprise, representative city. So, I think if you have a communist mayor, it’s going to be very tough for him, and for the city.”

After an election debate on Thursday, Curtis Sliwa wrote on X: “I was the clear winner tonight. Cuomo bombed it. He should drop out and let me take on Zohran Mamdani one on one, and I’ll beat him for New Yorkers.”

Mark Shanahan, a professor of U.S. politics, told Newsweek: “The city remains a one-off, an insulated microcosm. But of course, there will be resonance to other big cities and other candidates. The Democrats can’t go into the midterms and beyond with old ideas and old certainties.

“Mamdani represents new blood, taking the fight to an increasingly autocratic regime and meeting it head-on in social media—a space the GOP dominated in the 2024 presidential election. Mamdani is making his rivals look old and their ideas look out of step with average Jo and Jess America. Those are the learnings that will feed into elections elsewhere.”

What Happens Next

A second mayoral debate is scheduled for Wednesday, October 22, before the New York City mayoral election takes place November 4.

Incumbent Eric Adams will serve the remainder of his term in office, which ends on December 31.