Cook Political Report, the independent nonpartisan index and analysis group, released their latest set of U.S. House of Representatives race ratings on Thursday, shifting each one of New York’s races it deems competitive in the Democrats’ direction.
The last few years, New York has been a bastion for competitive races, and the state will likely be watched closely for those once again this year with control of the House up for grabs amid a current thinly divided chamber.
The two biggest changes from Cook’s ratings back in November involve Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in the 17th Congressional District and Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen in the 4th District.
In November, Cook categorized Lawler’s Hudson Valley seat as “lean Republican.” It now puts it in the “tossup” column. Lawler is running for a third term in one of only three districts nationwide represented by a Republican that Democrat Kamala Harris won in 2024, according to an analysis by Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Since he unseated Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in 2022, Lawler has proved to have staying power in the blue district, winning in 2024 by four points. He passed on a potential run for governor last summer.
Gillen, in her first term, was able to narrowly unseat Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito’s Long Island seat in 2024 by a mere 8,600 votes, or 2.3 points. In her reelection bid this year, Cook in November rated her race as a “tossup” and now rates it as “lean Democrat.” The district, made up of central and southern Nassau County, voted for Joe Biden for president by 15 points in 2020 and then for Kamala Harris by one point in 2024.
The other two big changes from Novemeber shift the 18th and 22nd districts from the “likely Democratic” column to the “safe Democratic column,” moving them completely off the competitive radar for Cook’s ratings. Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan has won three congressional contests in his Hudson Valley-based district since his special election victory in 2022. His first and second victories were close races but in 2024, he won reelection by double digits. The 18th District is made up of parts of Orange, Dutchess and Ulster counties, and includes the cities of Poughkeepsie and Kingston.
Democratic Rep. John Mannion is running for a second term after he unseated freshman Republican Rep. Brandon Williams in 2024 in the Syracuse-based 22nd District seat. Once one of the most competitive districts in the nation that usually fell the Republicans’ way, it was redrawn during Williams’ term and is now slightly more Democratic.
 
Two districts remain in the “lean Democratic” category, unchanged from Novemner. The first is Rep. Tom Suozzi, representing the 3rd District, which runs from northern Nassau County into northeastern Queens. First elected in 2016, Suozzi didn’t seek reelection in 2022 to instead run unsuccessfully for governor. His absence helped George Santos win the 3rd District seat that year. After Santos was expelled from the House in December 2023, Suozzi won a special election for his old seat and won again in the general election last year.
The second is Rep. Josh Riley in the 19th Congressional District, which stretches from Rensselaer and Columbia counties in the east to Tompkins County, and includes the cities of Binghamton and Ithaca. Riley narrowly defeated freshman Rep. Marc Molinaro in 2024 in a rematch from 2022.
The remaining House districts in the state aren’t considered competitive by Cook.
New York’s 26 congressional seats will all be on the ballot in November, alongside the four statewide offices.