The stage is set for one of the most significant winter storms to hit the United States in years, with two-thirds of the nation in the path of a monstrous system that will deliver snow and ice amid punishing polar cold, with the immediate New York City area likely to get as much as a foot of snow on Sunday, with up to 18 inches inland.
Heavy ice could pose serious risks to power and communication grids as well as roads and transportation systems from the Desert Southwest to the Northeast amid Arctic-cold temperatures. In all, 14 states have declared states of emergency so far, including New York.
A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for New York City and the Tri-State area from early Sunday morning to Monday night, in addition to a Cold Weather Advisory that goes into effect Friday night.
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In New York, residents will wake up to subzero wind chills on Saturday, the final day to prepare for the storm, and once the system clears out Monday, the Arctic grip will not relent all week, meaning all that snow and ice will not melt away anytime soon, a rare phenomenon in recent years.
The storm is the result of disturbances coming from the west colliding with Arctic cold as the storm coalesces and moves from New Mexico through the Heartland, the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic and by Sunday morning, the Northeast.
After initially fighting the dry, cold air mass, the snowfall will begin in earnest Sunday morning in New York City and the Tri-State area, with rapid accumulations from snowfall rates that could reach 1 to 2 inches per hour. Well north and west of New York City, the snow will pile up unimpeded until early morning Monday, when it will finally taper, leaving 12 to 18 inches.
In and around New York City, including parts of New Jersey and Long Island, expect 8 to 12 inches.
We introduced a 4 to 8 inch zone for southeastern Monmouth County, most of Ocean County, and the south shore of Long Island. These areas will likely mix in sleet earlier, cutting down on higher totals.
Even though temperatures will only reach 22 in the city on Sunday, well below freezing, the mixed precipitation will result from the intrusion of warmer air higher in the atmosphere, converting the snow to a wintry mix.
Regardless of final totals, travel is likely to be difficult if not impossible in places, and utilities will be on high alert for outages.
Governmental agencies across the Tri-state area are taking the threat seriously and are preparing for a significant snow storm.
While Saturday will be brutally cold, it will be dry, making it a good day to take care of any last-minute preparations ahead of the storm.
Check back regularly for an updated forecast discussion.