The Athletic has live coverage of Rockets vs. Thunder and Warriors vs. Lakers from 2025-26 NBA Season Tip-Off.

In making its bold predictions for the 2024-25 NBA season, The Athletic’s staff connected only eight out of 30 times. Two of those predictions concerned the Indiana Pacers and Dallas Mavericks, with writers correctly forecasting that those teams would and would not finish in the top four of their conferences, respectively.

This should not be construed as self-congratulatory, because those predictions, as it turned out, were not bold enough. Instead, we should have gone with:

• The Indiana Pacers will finish in the top four in the Eastern Conference, and then make a magical run in the playoffs, propelled by multiple 20-plus-point comebacks, to make Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

• The Dallas Mavericks will finish outside the top four of the Western Conference and, what the heck, trade Luka Dončić?

That’s the thing about predictions: You never know when you’re being unrealistic, but you also don’t know when you’re playing it too safe.

Coming into 2025-26, it seems like the NBA is heading for a new dynasty, with the Oklahoma City Thunder young and flexible enough to stay in the title picture for years. Any year now, Victor Wembanyama should start a nine-season streak of winning Defensive Player of the Year. Obviously, Cooper Flagg’s road to NBA stardom will begin by winning Rookie of the Year.

While all three of those items received better than 50 percent of the vote among our staff, here’s a bet: At least one won’t happen. The unforeseen always makes its presence felt in the NBA. — Eric Koreen

Thunder will continue to roll

Surprise: this staff didn’t reach for any scorching hot takes concerning the Thunder’s projected reign. The defending NBA champions have retained an indisputable blend of youth, talent, maximized development, and a claustrophobic, blood-drawing defense. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a meticulous scorer who racked up virtually every accolade imaginable last season, is 27 and potentially some seasons away from his peak.

If his nightly point total ever dips below 30 at this point, it’s because he went home early. His touch, midrange prowess and ability to reach his spots at will has convinced much of the hoop-watching world that he’s the NBA’s scoring king. A 70 point game might be out of reach, but if last season showed anything, it’s that he’s ready to drop 50 whenever.

Beyond SGA, young pillars Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are 24 and 23, respectively, and more than half of Oklahoma City’s rotation is clinging to their parents’ insurance.

Considering the way the Thunder can seemingly conjure rotational players at the snap of a finger — rookie Brooks Barnhizer seems next in line among those to play impactful minutes and beg the question, “Who the hell is this?” — they’ve nearly become immune to the symptoms of the regular season. They stormed to a NBA Cup final berth, and not only survived long absences from their big men a year ago, but thrived, unlocking lineups along the way.

It’s unclear how many weeks remain before Jalen Williams returns from rehabilitation (right wrist surgery), but last season’s proceedings have relieved some of that pressure. Not that the Thunder won’t miss Williams’ swiss-army-knife abilities, but coach Mark Daigneault will certainly seize the opportunity to bolster other lineups and bulk up different ball handlers.

Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell, both already pivotal members of this crew, should have opportunities orchestrating offense, particularly while 2024 lottery pick Nikola Topić remains sidelined (don’t ask). Expect more experimentation. Expect more lobs, a wrinkle this staff relishes after years of grounded big men. Expect Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein to build on their chemistry now that they’ve had more time.

There are so many moving parts to what makes these Thunder a regular-season gauntlet, among them development, buy-in, and the staff’s creativity. All of which has forced The Athletic’s hand when deciding which team might lose last. Last season’s Thunder didn’t lose two straight games until Holmgren went down in November; it didn’t occur again until early April.

The Thunder won 68 games a year ago with so much of the season going left. Teams will undoubtedly give them their best shot, but it seemed like they received much of that last season, too. Seventy wins, though it could take some intention, might not be so farfetched. — Joel Lorenzi

Also, The Athletic NBA staff, 19 of the 33 respondents, also chose the Thunder to win the West. The Nuggets were next with 11 votes, with the Warriors, Wolves and Lakers each receiving a vote.

Knicks break through in the East

This is as much about the lack of faith in the Cavaliers in the postseason — and the rest of the East in general — as it is the Knicks taking that next step.

New York returns a core group that made the Eastern Conference finals last year and has a new coach in Mike Brown who is hoping to provide a little more unpredictability to the Knicks’ offense. The defense should be improved, even if only slightly, assuming that Mitchell Robinson can start and finish the season without missing too many games.

A strong case could be made that New York has the best starting five in the East, with All-NBA talents Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns as the headliners, Robinson and then two of the league’s best 3-and-D wings to never make an All-Star game in OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges. The Knicks will need more consistency on both ends of the floor from Bridges, who they traded a handful of picks for last summer. The veteran wing had a rocky season that saw him struggle at time as the point-of-attack defender and struggle with his 3-point shot. He also barely spent any time at the free-throw line last season. Under Brown, Bridges should have a better offensive season due to the pace in which New York is hoping to play with.

The bench is the question mark with the Knicks. Outside of Miles McBride and Josh Hart, can they get enough productive minutes from Jordan Clarkson, Guerschon Yabusele and one or two veteran minimum guys? That’ll be something to monitor.

If New York can couple a talented starting five, with a more free-flowing, unpredictable style of play and a competent bench, there’s no reason it can’t get to the NBA Finals. — James Edwards III

Nikola Jokić will cement his place in the NBA pantheon

Larry Bird was the last player to finish first or second in MVP voting in five consecutive seasons. Between 1980-81 and ’85-86, the Boston Celtics legend finished second three times in a row before winning the next three seasons. (He finished third in 1986-87 before another second-place finish the following year. What a run.) Between then and five seasons back, only Tim Duncan reached four in a row.

Yes, Nikola Jokić is on an all-time run. He has been in the top two in every season since the NBA Bubble. It is easy to see why he might be back. His passing super-charges his teammates, and his teams generally crater when he is off the floor. The Nuggets have a little more depth this year. While Denver’s brain trust likely hopes that hurts Jokić’s annually absurd on-off splits, it could result in one of the Nuggets’ best regular seasons of the Jokić era. If the Serbian center wins, he would join LeBron James and Wilt Chamberlain in the four-timers club, two behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and one behind Bill Russell and Michael Jordan. — Koreen

Mavericks’ Flagg makes his mark

Cooper Flagg is the youngest No. 1 NBA draft pick since LeBron James. He doesn’t turn 19 years old until six days after Christmas. For someone who’s only been legally able to vote for 10 months, it’s scary how NBA-ready the Newport, Maine, native looks. There are no glaring holes in Flagg’s game. He does everything well.

Mavericks coach Jason Kidd trusts Flagg so much, he gave his 6-foot-9 rookie plenty of reps at point guard during the preseason. Flagg has handled all of it — reclassifying in high school so he could attend Duke a year early, the draft hoopla, his on-ball responsibility in the NBA — with poise. Add in Flagg’s competitiveness, and it’s no surprise why he is overwhelmingly our staff’s choice to win Rookie of the Year.

San Antonio Spurs players — Victor Wembanyama in 2023 and Stephon Castle in 2024 — have won the award the past two years. It’s possible Spurs guard Dylan Harper, the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft, makes this a closer race than many are anticipating. But it’s hard not to bet on Flagg, who so far has won everywhere he goes. — Christian Clark

Spurs’ Wembanyama returns to form on defense

This may be the easiest prediction to back up in the NBA.

Talk to anyone around the league about Wembanyama and they will often state as a fact that he was DPOY last season before his blood clot cut his campaign short. He just blocks out the sun on anyone approaching the paint in a way nobody else can.

As imposing as he is near the rim, he’s also dynamic on the perimeter and is always a menace rotating from out of position to clean up shots on the back side. He just takes so much away that it ruins offenses, and he’s not even that experienced yet.

Give him a full year in a season without disruption and this should be his award to lose for a long time. — Jared Weiss

Naz Reid and more annual awards

This is familiar territory for Reid, who won this award two years ago and has made himself into one of the most versatile reserves in the league.

This award often goes to the best scorer, but Reid is more than that. He has a slick handle, can defend bigs and gets out in transition like a wing. It’s why the Wolves gave him a five-year, $125 million deal this summer.

Last season, he was statistically better in many categories than he was the year he won it, but the Wolves were not as good as a team. This season, Minnesota has designs on returning to the top four in the conference. If that happens, Reid should be right there again. — Jon Krawczynski

After his breakout 2024-25 season, Amen Thompson’s approval rating among NBA enthusiasts went through the roof thanks to his extraordinary athletic gifts and his rugged defensive mindset. The same could also be said for his twin brother, Ausar. However, Amen probably has the more direct path to an award such as this because he’ll be one of the featured pieces on a Houston Rockets team that will be garnering a lot of attention after the acquisition of Kevin Durant.

Amen will also be stepping into a more prominent, ball-handling role for the Rockets this season after Fred VanVleet’s torn ACL left Houston without a proven point guard on the roster. By season’s end, I expect Amen to become a favorite among many casual NBA fans because he’s such an explosive athlete and he impacts the game by simply playing harder than everyone else on the floor.

If the Rockets win 50-plus games this season, he’ll be a constant topic of discussion among NBA fans who watch games every day and those who just tune in for highlights. His style of play makes it easy for folks on both ends of the spectrum to fall in love with his game. — Will Guillory

This prediction appears well thought-out for several reasons. The offseason additions of Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones should help Orlando improve what had been its two biggest weaknesses: its 3-point shooting and its largely deficient half-court playmaking. Meanwhile, the Magic hope to avoid the injuries that plagued them last season.

Jamahl Mosley has a clear track record of accomplishing arguably the most difficult task for any NBA coach: getting players to play with sustained effort on defense during the regular season. The ability to get the most out of players and year-over-year team improvement are what the NBA Coach of the Year award ought to be about.

In this case, our forecasters expect Mosley to do what he does so well and, in the process, lead the Magic toward the top of the East.  – Josh Robbins

It’s quite impressive that these two front offices are sharing this honor, as Hawks general manager Onsi Saleh and the co-Nuggets leaders Ben Tenzer and Jon Wallace accomplished something unique and counterintuitive during their debut summer: They improved their respective rosters significantly in the first few months — weeks, even — of being elevated to the top job.

They did so in similar fashion, too, by upgrading a key starting position (Cam Johnson over Michael Porter Jr. in Denver; Kristaps Porziņģis over Onyeka Okongwu in Atlanta) and adding impact role players to their rotations (Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valančiūnas, Bruce Brown with the Nuggets; Nickeil Alexander-Walker; Luke Kennard).

In both cases, their ability to facilitate these kinds of deals, via trade or free agency, reflects the reality that these are respected executives who not only have a good eye for talent but who have the sort of relationship capital with rival executives (and with agents) that always helps get these deals done. — Sam Amick

First the Lakers, then Bucks: Who’ll take this season’s NBA Cup?

Oklahoma City made it to the finals of the NBA Cup last season, and it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that the reigning NBA champions will be a force in the regular season once again after winning 68 games last year. With the addition of Durant and the emergence of young players like Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Şengün, the Rockets will be one of the most interesting teams in the league every time they step on the floor.

If the NBA Cup semifinals comes down to a game between the Thunder and the Rockets, as it did last year, it will again be a fascinating contrast in styles of play between an OKC team that relies heavily on activity from its guards and a Houston team that will try to bully opponents with its size and physicality. — Will Guillory

Which star will be on the move at the trade deadline?

For three years, the chic response to this question has been Lauri Markkanen, and for good reason. Markkanen has a game that’s easy to slide into almost any situation. Seven-footers who shoot 40 percent on volume from 3-point range and play above the rim don’t grow on trees. And the Jazz are in a rebuilding situation. So, it makes sense.

Thing is, the Jazz value Markkanen and have rebuffed many an advance for him by other teams. It will take a lot to pry Markkanen from Utah. And Markkanen has taken to Utah. His contract last season, structured in a way to make him untradeable during the season wasn’t an accident. That was Markkanen’s idea.

There is a world where the Jazz part with Markkanen. But that world is a team making them an offer that amounts to 100 cents on the dollar, not pennies on the dollar. That isn’t the sign of a team looking to trade someone at the deadline.

I would look somewhere like Jonathan Kuminga. Or a team out of the playoff running, looking to fire sale at the deadline. — Tony Jones

Can the Wizards exceed our expectations?

The Wizards’ early-season schedule features one difficult opponent after another. In their first 12 games, they’ll play at Milwaukee, Dallas, Oklahoma City, New York (against the Knicks, not the Nets), Boston, Detroit and Houston. The Wizards’ home games will include matchups against the Magic, Cavaliers and Mavericks. Tough stuff.

But I don’t share the assessment that the Wizards will be the last team to win its first game. For its third and fourth games, Washington will host Charlotte and Philadelphia. The Hornets will play on the second night of a back-to-back when they play in D.C. The Sixers will be on the second night of a back-to-back when they play in D.C.

So, mark these words: The Wizards will have won a game before Oct. 30. “Soothsayer Robbins” has spoken! — Robbins

The Wizards remain in the relatively early stages of their rebuild, and they arguably haven’t yet brought aboard the franchise-changing player they need. That’s incentive enough to finish at, or near, the bottom of the 2025-26 standings.

But this season, the franchise will have additional incentive to maximize its odds for the draft lottery in May. Because of a trade in 2020 — a trade that sent John Wall and a future protected first-round to the Houston Rockets for Russell Westbrook — the Wizards need to finish in the top eight of the 2026 draft order to keep that pick for themselves.

Washington has assembled a roster loaded with young players, and those youngsters will receive massive amounts of playing time. That playing time should help the kids grow and — because so many inexperienced players will play alongside other inexperienced players — also help the team to bottom out. — Robbins