Say it ain’t snow.
On the heels of the biggest snowfall New York City has seen in five years, we’re already monitoring another potential storm that could impact the tri-state area this weekend.
A very strong coastal storm remains likely to develop off the Carolina coast. Impacts to the East Coast are currently very uncertain, so our extended forecast for the weekend is still uncertain.
Some impacts are becoming more certain, however, even this far out.
What we know
We are confident that a storm will develop and strengthen quickly on Saturday somewhere off the coast of the southeastern U.S. It will generate in response to a potent upper-atmospheric disturbance that digs into the Eastern U.S. from Canada late this week.
The storm will reinforce the cold air in place along the East Coast. Much of Florida will drop below freezing this weekend as a result. For the tri-state area, it means our string of below-freezing days will carry into next week.
With the low increasingly likely to deepen offshore, we will likely experience high surf on South- and East- facing shorelines Sunday into Monday. The full Snow Moon happens Sunday, Feb. 1, too. The combination may cause minor coastal flooding and beach erosion on Sunday.
What we don’t know
What we don’t know is the most likely track of this weekend’s storm. Aside from the storm’s strength, the track is the most important factor in determining its overall impacts on the tri-state Area.
Currently, the American and European forecast models keep the storm far enough offshore to minimize any snow potential. But these are low-confidence forecasts this far from the event, so nothing is off the table.
If the ultimate track ends up hugging the coast, expect a mix of rain and snow for the tri-state, more than likely rain at the coast and snow inland. If the track hits a sweet spot far enough offshore, it could mean all snow – even at the coast. A far-offshore track would lock in cold air but keep storm precipitation out to sea.
While it’s way too early to make any definitive predictions on what exactly will happen, we remain laser-focused on this weekend’s forecast. tay tuned to Storm Team 4 this week for updates.