STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — According to groundhog lore, if the furry creature sees his shadow on Groundhog Day, six more weeks of cold, blustery winter are on the way. But, if no shadow is spotted, we can look forward to the early arrival of spring.
The Staten Island Zoo’s most famous resident, Staten Island Chuck, has an accuracy rate of more than 85% since 1981 when it comes to predicting the arrival of spring, according to data. And officials at the West Brighton zoo tell us he’s primed to give us a glimpse into our weather future on Monday, Feb. 2, Groundhog Day 2026.
Despite New York’s recent dangerous cold and wind chills, human weather forecasters at the National Weather Service are predicting sunny skies and a high of 32 degrees on Monday.
Accuweather meteorologists are also calling for sunny skies on Monday, with the same high temperature.
Residents should continue monitoring forecasts as the weekend approaches for any changes to the expected conditions, meteorologists warn.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has Monday looking cloudy and cold, with a chance of snow. No shadow equals early spring.
Staten Islanders know the true forecaster is Chuck — who’s really been on a roll the past 16 years — and we’ll just have to wait for his 2026 prediction.
In 2025, he was right on the money, predicting early spring. His prediction was followed by several days of warm weather within the next six weeks.
And his early spring forecast in 2024 was also on cue.
Chuck was last officially wrong in 2009, the same year he bit former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Worth noting: In 2017, students at PS 45 who tracked Chuck’s prediction said he was wrong that year, too.
The Groundhog Day ceremony, which is set to take place on Monday, Feb. 2, at the Staten Island Zoo will be closed to the public this year due to the weather. New York City has seen arctic temperatures in recent days, after a significant storm dumped about a foot of snow on the borough last weekend.
The ceremony will begin on Monday at 8 a.m. Fans of Chuck are invited to tune-in and watch the proceedings live on the Staten Island Zoo’s Facebook page.
Chuck’s appearance and prediction are expected to occur at 8:30 a.m.
The Staten Island Advance/SILive.com will also be on hand to cover the prediction. You’ll be able to catch the ceremony live from our Facebook page.
Those interested in seeing Punxsutawney Phil, Chuck’s main rival, make his annual prediction from Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, can view it online. The livestream will begin at approximately 6 a.m.