Staten Island Chuck Groundhog Day prediction 2026

Punxsutawney Phil’s pick is in! Did he call for an early spring, or six more weeks of winter?

STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — There’s “snow” way around it, the winter of our discontent will continue.

Staten Island Chuck, easily the most accurate rodent prognosticator, saw his shadow at the Staten Island Zoo’s Groundhog Day ceremony in West Brighton on Monday. That means we’re in for six more weeks of winter.

*** For those watching on mobile or the app, click here. ***

This may come as no surprise to many, as this year’s winter is hitting hard and doesn’t seem to be loosening its grip. In fact, the annual event at the zoo was closed to the public Monday due to the harsh weather, as New York City has been battling frigid temperatures after a major storm dumped almost a foot of snow on the borough just over a week ago.

The 2026 prediction is also noteworthy as it snaps a 12-year long streak of Chuck calling for an early spring that dates back to 2014.

Longtime Staten Islanders might also remember the 2014 prediction for other reasons, as it was also the year that then-Mayor Bill de Blasio accidentally dropped Staten Island Chuck.

As tradition goes, if the groundhog sees its shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter. If not, an early spring is on the way.

The event, sponsored by Citizens, featured special guests, Staten Island elected officials, and students from Susan E. Wagner High School, Sea View, who will serve as Chuck’s “weather checkers.”

The students will monitor the weather for the next 45 days to determine if Chuck is accurate in his prediction.

The ceremony, weather science school outreach, and care for the zoo’s resident groundhog Chuck are made possible by the generosity of Citizens.

If you missed the ceremony, you can watch it on our Facebook page.

Accuracy rate

On Groundhog Day 2025, Punxsutawney Phil predicted six more weeks of winter after seeing his shadow at Gobbler’s Knob. Staten Island Chuck, however, again predicted an early spring.

According to the StormFax Weather Almanac, Phil has an overall accuracy rate of 39% over 135 years. Chuck, on the other hand, has an 85% accuracy rate since he’s been monitoring weather beginning in 1981.

Chuck’s accuracy isn’t without some controversy though.

Staten Island students typically track local weather from Feb. 2 through March, to see if Chuck’s prediction holds up.

Students at PS 45 in West Brighton said he was wrong in 2017.

Beyond that small bump in the road, Chuck’s extended winter-or-early spring predictions have been on point for almost two decades; he was last officially wrong in 2009, the same year he bit former Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

History of the holiday

The Groundhog Day tradition can be traced to Candlemas, an early Christian holiday where candles were blessed and distributed. Those who celebrated Candlemas decided that clear skies on the holiday meant a longer winter.

When German immigrants arrived in Pennsylvania, they found a large number of groundhogs. And they tasked the groundhog, which resembles the European hedgehog, with the job of predicting the weather.

The holiday started with the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, founded in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, in 1887. The editor of the Punxsutawney newspaper was a member of the club, and he claimed that Punxsutawney Phil was the only true weather-predicting groundhog.

Chuck has been making his prediction for more than three decades; some years have been more eventful than others.

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