The Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani is the overwhelming favourite to become New York City’s next mayor, according to an analysis of polling data. The state assemblyman has an average poll rating of 47 per cent, comfortably higher than that of the independent candidate Andrew Cuomo or the Republican activist Curtis Sliwa.
On November 4 New Yorkers will elect a mayor to succeed Eric Adams, the Democratic incumbent. Between now and election day, The Times will be tracking the latest opinion polls to assess who has the best chance of winning.
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How did we get here?
Cuomo announced his mayoral campaign in March 2025. The 67-year-old had resigned as governor in 2021 over a sexual harassment scandal. He launched his mayoral run as a Democrat, but was defeated by 34-year-old Mamdani in the party primary in June.
Mamdani, who has campaigned on a socialist platform, has been the pollsters’ favourite since the summer.
The incumbent Adams had been standing for re-election as an independent candidate, but withdrew his candidacy on September 28. He was indicted for alleged bribery and fraud, although the charges were later dismissed by the Trump administration.
Despite trailing in the polls, Sliwa — an outspoken former talk-show host, and the unsuccessful Republican nominee in 2021 — has resisted pressure to bow out. A Republican win looks extremely unlikely this time. Michael Bloomberg was the last Republican in City Hall, before disaffiliating in 2007.
• NYC mayoral election 2025: the candidates and key issues
Who is Mamdani leading among?
Two issues are key to understanding Mamdani’s popularity: housing and inflation. He has run on a campaign promising to freeze rents and — to quote his website — “lower the cost of living for working-class New Yorkers”. Unsurprisingly, among voters for whom affordable housing is a top issue, he has 71 per cent support.
He is much weaker, however, on crime, ranking third after his rivals among voters who say this is their biggest issue.
Perhaps because of his focus on housing, it is not surprising that Mamdani’s popularity is strongest among young people. According to a September poll by Quinnipiac University, 63 per cent of 18 to 34-year-olds support Mamdani. However, he is also ahead in every other age group.
Mamdani also leads every racial group, although his lead among white voters — by 12 percentage points — is more modest than in racial minority groups.
What if one of the candidates drops out?
Mamdani’s lead could be cut if one of the other two candidates pull out of the race. According to polling from AARP on October 14-15, if Cuomo were to drop out then Mamdani would still have a comfortable lead.
But if Sliwa drops out, then Mamdani’s lead is dramatically cut to just four points. For now, this appears unlikely: despite trailing in the polls, Sliwa is refusing to end his campaign.
What do betting markets think?
Betting sites say that anything other than a Mamdani win is extremely unlikely. According to Polymarket, the prediction site where users bet on different outcomes, Mamdani has a 92 per cent chance of becoming the next New York mayor.
He has been the favourite since overtaking Cuomo in mid-June. Sliwa, meanwhile, has been given a 1 per cent chance, while Cuomo is on 5 per cent.
This article will be updated regularly. The time stamp at the top of the article will show when it was last updated, not when it was first published.