TGL Week 8 preview: New York vs. Bay, Boston vs. Atlanta battle for first

PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla. — The TGL is playing seven matches in the next nine days.

The competitive challenges of the global golf calendar come to a head when the PGA Tour travels east to the Sunshine State. The Florida swing not only brings about another signature series event but also our first tentpole tournament of the season, The Players Championship.

TGL’s midseason break is carefully coordinated with the Genesis Invitational. Eight of 15 regular-season matches are in the books. The standings tell a brief story, but truth be told, what started in December will be wrapped up in just over a week. Matches 9 and 10 will be played Monday. Then back into the SoFi Center for Matches 11 and 12 on Tuesday.

TGL Week 8 Matches
• Match 9: Monday, 5 p.m., all times ET (ESPN) – Boston Common Golf versus Atlanta Drive Golf Club
• Match 10: Monday, 9 p.m. (ESPN2) – Los Angeles Golf Club versus Atlanta Drive Golf Club
• Match 11: Tuesday, 5 p.m. (ESPN) – New York Golf Club versus The Bay Golf Club
• Match 12: Tuesday, 9 p.m. (ESPN) – Boston Common Golf versus New York Golf Club

Four teams have played three matches, and two teams have made two trips inside the TGL dome. What I find most compelling this week is the amount of volatility we may see due to this four-match schedule. Match 9 is a battle for first place as both the Atlanta Drive and Boston Common are 2-1. Should matches 9, 10, and 11 unfold in a certain win/loss sequence, our last match of the week (Match 12) could also be a battle for first place! We saw the same calendar cadence for Season 1 of TGL, and it was super entertaining. The league starts slowly while the players are out west. Now that the Florida events are taking place, a sense of urgency permeates the SoFi Center. Time is running out to complete Season 2.

Even the most ardent TGL fan is not looking for a 2,000-word weekly match preview. Instead, I am going to highlight the specific edge for each match that I believe will tilt the contest in one team’s favor. Since this is a wagering preview, I am also going to list the matches in order of my confidence in picking the result. Keep track of the match numbers as they need to correspond with your wagers online.

The first match Tuesday pits the New York GC (1-1) versus The Bay GC (1-2). In Match 8, The Bay surprised us by upsetting Los Angeles GC. An unexpected result, to say the least, those winning players are not here. Ludvig Åberg, Wyndham Clark, and Shane Lowry have returned, along with their 0-2 record in Season 2. A glance at the analytics tells you The Bay is ranked last in Driving Accuracy, GIRs and Scrambling. Their Hammer stats look promising, but that’s in large part due to the LAGC match, where Los Angeles had to keep throwing Hammers to try to catch up.

New York Golf Club: Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rickie Fowler. Team Coordinator: Kraig Joy. Sitting out: Cameron Young
The Bay Golf Club: Ludvig Åberg, Wyndham Clark, Shane Lowry. Team Coordinator: Josh Seiple. Sitting out: Min Woo Lee

New York GC knows how to score in the SoFi Center. In Season 2, the boys from the Bronx are ranked No. 1 in Scrambling and No. 2 in short- and mid-range putting. Those key Greenzone skills are why I love this matchup. The Match 11 scorecard is long by TGL standards (6,148 yards). The average par 4 is 459 yards, and although The Bay has ball speed, they have not been accurate this season. Those longer holes are going to require some scrambling. Schauffele, Fitzpatrick and Fowler are incredibly good from close range. One proven way TGL matches can be won is by converting from close range. Match 11 will be decided by NYGC’s ability to save strokes and score from around (and on) the green.

Another way TGL matches are won is through lineup construction. The Los Angeles GC (1-2) is catching the Atlanta Drive GC (2-1) on the back end of Monday night’s doubleheader. To compound their advantage, LAGC has put the Nos. 3, 4 and 5-ranked players in the world (!) on their lineup card. I realize ADGC is the defending SoFi Cup Champions, but that is a stout team taking on an average Atlanta Drive lineup. Switching out Justin Thomas, who is returning from injury, is understandable, but why pull Chris Gotterup? No other player has won twice on Tour this season. The Match 10 course is one big accuracy test. Players are hitting the fairway 60 percent of the time, and that collection of GIRs 63 percent of the time. Both are below-average values for the weekly TGL layouts.

Los Angeles Golf Club (-120): Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa. Team Coordinator: TBD. Sitting out: Sahith Theegala
Atlanta Drive Golf Club (-105): Billy Horschel, Patrick Cantlay, Lucas Glover. Team Coordinator: Ben Helmrath. Sitting out: Justin Thomas

Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose are three of the most accurate players in the world. Morikawa has not missed a fairway this TGL season! LAGC leads the league in Triples Holes and Points won. Why? Because accuracy is essential in alternate shot. Horschel’s heroics won’t be enough for this matchup to close out Monday night. The third match on my list, in order of lean confidence, is Match 12. Our second match Tuesday night features Boston Common Golf (2-1) versus the New York GC (1-1). My next pick is driven by experience, an incredible edge on the TGL turf.

Boston Common Golf: Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley. Team Coordinator: Niall O’Connor. Sitting out: Rory McIlroy
New York Golf Club: Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, Rickie Fowler. Team Coordinator: Chris Wilson. Sitting out: Matt Fitzpatrick

Match 12’s layout has seven brand new holes for TGL Season 2. Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele and Rickie Fowler have played these holes in recent matches. BCG’s 2-1 record was built on Rory McIlroy’s driver and Michael Thorbjornsen’s putter. Adam Scott and Hideki Matsuyama have not seen their names on a Season 2 lineup card. Scott and Matsuyama have not played Stinger, The Last Toll and Cenote. I believe that’s a considerable edge for NYGC and why they are slightly favored. Picking match winners for TGL is akin to splitting hairs. Two or three of these new tests are going to throw BCG off, and NYGC’s scoring ability will be there to finish Tuesday night 2-0!

The opening match of week 8 is going to be an emotional event. Justin Thomas is not just entering the SoFi Center for the first time in Season 2, but this is JT’s first anything since back surgery in November. In a contest being billed as the battle for first place, the Atlanta Drive GC (2-1) and Boston Common Golf (2-1) both have an opportunity to secure SoFi Cup playoff berths. The two best teams to date in TGL’s Season 2 have also put together strong lineup cards. Match 9 features the longest course of the week at 6,203 yards. Boston Common is ranked No. 1 in Driving Distance and Accuracy. They hold that same top spot in the rankings for short- and mid-range putt efficiency. This is the best driving and putting team on the longest course of the four matches. ADGC is ranked last in Driving Distance.

Atlanta Drive Golf Club (+110): Chris Gotterup, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay. Team Coordinator: Ben Helmrath. Sitting out: Billy Horschel, Lucas Glover
Boston Common Golf (-135): Rory McIlroy, Keegan Bradley, Michael Thorbjornsen. Team Coordinator: Niall O’Connor. Sitting out: Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama

These two teams are very close with these specific lineups, which is why this pick is fourth on my confidence meter. Chris Gotterup versus Rory McIlroy head-to-head is a special way to kick off the match week. That distance edge and Atlanta Drive’s lack of Season 2 savvy around the greens gives Boston Common the edge, and the books reflect it. Those are my four match leans in order of overall matchup assurance. Two interesting items to keep an eye out for during Monday night’s matches are the introduction of two new holes. Match 9 will mark the debut of another Gil Hanse design called Lavender Lane. In Match 10, Caverns will be unveiled. Check the links included for further details.

Match odds, H2H matchups, special props and scoring wagers will be made available by BETMGM as each match’s start time approaches.