The New York Independent System Operator, which manages the state’s power grid, issued a new assessment on Tuesday that again warns that there may be “significant reliability shortfalls within the next ten years.”
Times Union file photo
ALBANY — The New York Independent System Operator, which manages the state’s power grid, issued a new assessment on Tuesday that warns there may be “significant reliability shortfalls within the next ten years.”
A second, short-term assessment issued by the grid operator said that over the next five years there may be “reliability violations” in New York City and Long Island beginning next summer. Those problems are a result of power plant deactivations and also “increasing consumer demand and transmission limitations.”
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“Taken together, these two reports show the grid is at a significant inflection point,” said Zach Smith, a senior vice president with the New York Independent System Operator. “Depending on future demand growth and generator retirements, the system may need several thousand megawatts of new dispatchable generation within the next ten years.”
The ability of New York’s energy grid to adequately handle future electricity needs is narrowing as power plants are aging and not being replaced, demand is expected to increase, and the zero-emission mandates of the state’s Climate Act are in place.
Gas shortages also are expected to add stress to the future winter power supplies over the next decade during cold snaps.
The latest prognosis, which has findings that are similar to a biennial assessment that NYISO issued a year ago, comes as green energy advocates are continuing to pressure state lawmakers and regulators to maintain the mandates of New York’s 2019 Climate Act. Business and energy sector stakeholders have been supportive of the zero-emission goals but also have asked for a full assessment of the costs and whether the mandates can be met.
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When the 2019 Climate Act was passed, lawmakers did not at the time foresee the ongoing expansion in New York of the manufacturing sectors that develop semiconductors, crypto currency and data centers.
Now, “New York’s electric system faces an era of profound reliability challenges as resource retirements accelerate, economic development drives demand growth, and project delays undermine confidence in future supply,” the system operator’s 10-year report states. “Additionally, 25% of the state’s total generating capacity is fossil-fuel-based generation that has been in operation for more than 50 years. As these generators age, they are experiencing more frequent and longer outages.”
Expected increases in peak demand — along with limited supplies and state lawmakers’ decision to start shutting down small gas plants — are among the factors contributing to the system operator’s call for a new approach to planning the state’s future energy and transmission needs.
That approach includes evaluating “a wider range of plausible emerging risks, rather than relying solely on a deterministic base case,” and incorporating “the probability of aging generation or catastrophic failures, recognizing that these risks grow significantly over time.”
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Many of the state’s power generators are approaching 70 years old with no clear indication of how long they may last. System operator officials have previously warned that New York is not adding enough power generation and is relying on those aging plants.
Solar installations have been increasing in New York, especially for residences and small commercial projects that are “behind the meter,” but in the winter months solar generation declines as the sun is lower in the sky and days are shorter.
Some lawmakers, including New York’s congressional members who have supported doling out billions of dollars in federal aid to chip fab expansions at Micron Technologies in Rochester and GlobalFoundries in Malta, have asserted that “clean energy” will be able to power those facilities.
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Three years ago, during a cold winter snap, power generators in the New York City area switched off their gas and used oil reserves to deal with the surge in heating requirements so that natural gas could continue flowing across upstate New York.