A wise man once said, “You don’t know what you don’t know, and it’s easy to spot those who fail to recognize what they don’t know, because they don’t realize that they’re easy to spot.”
Longtime WFAN afternoon-drive sports radio host Mike Francesa qualifies as one of the aforementioned wise man’s subjects. While he certainly knows what he’s doing in the ratings department — evidenced by the genesis of this very story — there’s no alternative way to judge the sports pope than merely spewing conviction without concrete merit leading the way.
Francesa’s latest line involved one of his favorite targets, the New York Jets, coupled with one of his favorite families, the Mannings. (Yes, folks, he knows them; he really does know them. Just ask Bill Simmons.)
Francesa has spoken
“I hate to give you this a year in advance, and it’ll probably make you hate the Mannings more — and, if you’re a Jets fan, you hate the Mannings already, because, remember, Peyton didn’t want to play for the Jets — (but) they will not let Arch Manning play for the Jets,” Francesa proclaimed on his podcast a couple of days ago.
Arch Manning, 21, was eligible to enter the 2026 NFL draft. Of course, the football world has known for quite some time that the next pro football Manning would return for his redshirt junior season.
This, coupled with the powder keg that has been the Jets’ quarterback situation for decades, has generated out-and-out hysteria over the 2027 draft. It’s only natural for the Jets to remain in the spotlight as one of the many teams that not only need but could be in line to draft Arch (or any of the intriguing arms) next offseason.
However, as the Sports Pope has been known to do throughout the years when it comes to the Jets, he shut down any potential optimism.
“I’m telling you right now, they will manipulate the draft,” Francesa added. “They will never let him get drafted by the Jets. You can take that to the bank.
“He’s not going to go to the Jets. I’m telling you right now: The Jets aren’t going to wind up with Arch Manning in two years. It’s not going to happen, under any circumstances. That family will not allow it.”
If only the wise man were his co-host.
To make such a statement with such a blanket of absolute certainty is to arrive at the party lazily dressed. It announces to the world, “Yes, I’m here, I look horrific, but I don’t care because I’m acutely aware of how valuable my proclamations are to the world.”
Shortsightedness
Pretending that Arch Manning doesn’t exercise a modicum of free will is both shortsighted and insulting.
How does Francesa know what makes Arch tick? What if this particular Manning doesn’t just reluctantly take on tougher situations, but he actually craves them? What if he feels he’s at his best when presented with a situation that provides near-unanimous doubt?
Oh yeah, what about Cooper Manning, you know, Arch’s dad? How does he feel about the hypothetical situation being bandied about?
To pretend that all of the Mannings are one and the same is to not even slightly engage in a semblance of critical thinking.
Sure, the Mannings have a history of manipulating destinations. When Eli Manning (along with his dad, Archie) pulled a power move in 2004 to avoid the then-San Diego Chargers, ultimately landing with the New York Giants, it was an unabashed, big-boy NFL draft maneuver.
While many pundits and fans don’t love the move, some are forced to at least respect it. At the very least, they didn’t try to hide from it. As opposed to squirming their way out of the spotlight, pretending as though it didn’t happen, they took it fully on their own shoulders.
Arch, a man whose talent could never fully be on display, thanks to his grave misfortunes of playing for the 1970s New Orleans Saints, wanted no part of San Diego’s then-ownership scenario for his son. After all, he endured a lifetime of active-football-playing misery.
The Peyton fallacies
The Peyton Manning story is completely murky. It surely remains one of the greatest “what ifs” in Jets history, but unlike Francesa’s conviction that Peyton wanted nothing to do with the then-Bill-Parcells-led squad, the nearly three decades that followed tell a different story.
In 1997, a New York Times article by then-beat writer Gerald Eskenazi had Peyton on the record, stating that his decision to return for his senior season at Tennessee would have been made more difficult had Parcells signaled that he’d be the No. 1 overall pick.
However, a Manning quote also explicitly stated that Parcells’s presence enticed him to declare in 1997.
“Manning said the possibility of playing for Bill Parcells had almost swayed him to leave after Parcells took over as the Jets’ coach last month,” Eskenazi wrote.
In 2021, Parcells confirmed that he would have drafted Manning in 1997, had he declared. He also added that the NFL was watching the league closely, as communication between organizations and soon-to-be draftees was scrutinized.
Either way, nothing suggests Payton returned to school as an alternative to playing for the New York Jets. Besides, that’s hardly a power play; prospects have every right to return to school.
More importantly, those are the old days. These days, the NFL draft is entirely new in its stubborn inflexibility.
The slotted system
Quick, think fast: Which prospect pulled a power play in the NFL draft to ensure a specific franchise did not draft him?
Yeah, I couldn’t think of one either.
The reason it hasn’t happened since then is simple: These situations are the rarest of rare. It’s why Francesa’s proclamation, announced with such confidence and authority, is silly.
In late February, Gary Myers reported that Arch Manning, if placed in a situation where the New York Jets could draft him, would not avoid the situation.
I heard again this week that Arch Manning absolutely will not try to manipulate the draft (like Uncle Eli did in 2004) to avoid playing for @nyjets if they’re in position to get him with overall #1 pick in 2027.
So relax, Jets Nation.
Just my opinion: The Jets are all-in on…
— Gary Myers (@GaryMyersNY) February 26, 2026
Do I believe that with absolute certainty? Of course I don’t, and neither should anybody reading this article. The same should be said about Francesa’s words, for they are merely words.
What it boils down to is a bit of patience and critical thinking.
How the Peyton Manning situation went down in 1997 remains muddied and open-ended, as most firmly believe he was intent on returning to school no matter what. What Eli Manning pulled off in 2004, with help from dad Archie, whose motivation was partly driven by his own brutal experiences in New Orleans, is incredibly difficult.
These days, it’s nearly impossible.
Once the Sam Bradford contract blew the lid off how ridiculous negotiated rookie contracts actually were, the NFL moved to the slotted-salary draft system. No longer would teams and agents have any reason to negotiate terms before the NFL draft.
Moving in this direction has scraped off an incredible amount of gunk and scumminess that was previously seen. The opportunities for prospects (and their agents) to move and shake (like Eli in 2004) have been dramatically decreased.
Some would argue that the opportunities no longer exist.
What’s he going to do?
Just two years ago, unsubstantiated rumors surfaced that Jayden Daniels wasn’t too keen on the Washington Commanders drafting him. Just eight months after their selection, they shocked the world by reaching the NFC championship game.
The beautiful thing about the NFL is its parity, whose genesis lies in Wellington Mara and the powers that be constructing the revenue-sharing system. Each market, no matter its size, would have its fair shake.
The ugly thing about the NFL is its parity, as Jets fans are well aware of. Even if a franchise fails to make the playoffs for 15 straight years, and MetLife Stadium is a ghost town, the revenue continues to pour in for Woody Johnson.
Fortunately for Woody, what Francesa says is lazy and shortsighted. He absolutely has no clue if Arch Manning would try to avoid the New York Jets in 2027.
After all, what’s he going to do if he wants to put on the power play? Return to school? Hey, that’s his prerogative.
But that’s not a power play, not the one the Sports Pope was so intensely describing when speaking — while also acting like the Mannings operate as the default football mafia. Those moves just don’t exist these days, per the realities of the National Football League today.
It’s not difficult to understand why Mike Francesa would make such an absolute claim with confidence. If you’ve heard him talk about the NFL at all lately, you’d immediately understand he still breaks down the game like it’s 2004 — totally oblivious to modern concepts.
It’s now 2026.