Massive Knicks NBA Finals roadblock shifts with Cade Cunningham injury

A major variable in the Knicks’ path to the NBA Finals just changed. Cade Cunningham is out — with no timeline for a return.

The Detroit Pistons announced Thursday that Cunningham has been diagnosed with a “mild” collapsed lung, an injury expected to sideline the All-Star guard for an extended period. Whether he can return in time for the playoffs — or whether it will be safe for him to do so — remains unclear.

That uncertainty has immediate implications for the Eastern Conference — and for the Knicks. Because Cunningham is the engine behind a Pistons team that entered the final stretch of the season holding the No. 1 seed in the East — and one that has consistently overwhelmed New York.

The Knicks have lost all three matchups against Detroit this season. They lost three of four last year as well, even while surviving a first-round playoff series in six games.

And if the Knicks were going to reach the NBA Finals, the path was always going to involve dealing with Cunningham and a physical Pistons team built around him.

Now, that path could look different. With 13 games remaining, Detroit holds a 3.5-game lead over the Boston Celtics for the top seed and sits five games ahead of the Knicks in third. But that positioning is now vulnerable — especially with eight of the Pistons’ final 14 games coming against teams still competing for playoff positioning.

Remove Cunningham from that equation, and the East becomes more fluid. It already was with Tyrese Haliburton out recovering from an Achilles injury and Jayson Tatum’s mid-season return to form from his own Achilles rupture, too. And now Cunningham — an All-NBA playmaker averaging 24.5 points, 9.9 assists and 5.6 rebounds — adds to the East’s uncertainty.

On paper, that softens the most difficult matchup standing between the Knicks and a Finals appearance. But it doesn’t guarantee anything — and it may not even benefit New York in the way it appears.

Because if Detroit slips, the most likely team to capitalize is Boston, not the Knicks. The Celtics sit just 3.5 games back of the No. 1 seed. The Knicks are five games behind and have less margin to close the gap.

That creates a different kind of scenario: If the Pistons fall to the No. 2 or No. 3 seed without Cunningham, the Knicks wouldn’t see them in the Conference Finals. They’d see them earlier — in the second round. The order of matchups would shift, potentially forcing New York to deal with a still-dangerous Detroit team sooner rather than later in a postseason run with little room for error.

Plus, collapsed lung history makes a strong case for a speedy Cunningham return to action.

CJ McCollum missed roughly six weeks with the injury in 2021 and about a month in 2023. Terrence Jones returned in roughly two weeks in 2015. Gerald Wallace missed seven games in 2009, though his case required intubation.

There’s no consistent recovery window for a collapsed lung.  Detroit has labeled Cunningham’s injury “mild.”

And in New York, there’s a more immediate issue. The Knicks haven’t shown they can handle the Pistons, regardless of health. They’ve lost all three matchups this season — by 37, 31 and 15 points. The 15-point loss came in a game where Detroit was without both Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart due to suspension.

There are contextual notes. New York was without Josh Hart in one game, OG Anunoby in another. But those explanations don’t change the larger takeaway: the Pistons have controlled the matchup for two years. The Knicks, meanwhile, are 18-13 against top-six teams from either conference this season. It’s a good record, but the performances haven’t been remotely compelling enough record to assume anything about how a playoff series would unfold this season.

Cunningham’s timeline only adds to the uncertainty. That doesn’t make the timeline predictable.

It’s just another variable outside the Knicks’ control, another storyline underscoring the importance of maximizing the opportunity available this season.

Because next year, the path won’t be this wide-open. And if the Knicks can’t capitalize this year, there’s no telling what will happen in another offseason the front office spends scrambling to improve the roster in what’s sure to be a crowded Eastern Conference playoff race next season.