“The whole problem and project of descriptive statistics was discriminating between what made a difference and what did not.”
—”Oblivion,” David Foster Wallace
What a difference three days can make.
After Thursday night’s series-opening loss in San Francisco — the New York Mets’ third straight loss — things were trending swiftly in a negative direction. The offense was uninspired, the bullpen quickly overwhelmed. And the Mets were one inning away from losing Juan Soto for the weekend.
Three days later, all is well for New York, who won all three of those games — with one plate appearance from Soto total — over the Giants to earn a satisfying flight home and a day off Monday. How did they do it?
Mark Vientos is on fire
With a 10-for-21 start to the season, Vientos is a reminder that so many early-season stereotypes are wrong. No, spring training stats — and even spring training process — don’t matter all that much. (Marcus Semien agrees.) Yes, getting your bench players into games early, even at the expense of otherwise properly rested starters, does help. (Jared Young agrees.)
And no, you shouldn’t write off a talented player based off the previous season. So many comments throughout the spring and first week of the season questioned (to put it politely) Vientos’ role on the team and future in the organization. Collectively, those comments reminded me of what people were saying about Brett Baty this time last year, or about Vientos ahead of his breakout 2024 season. It takes so long to really know.
The Mets didn’t sell low on Vientos, and they created a roster that allows him room to play without necessarily relying on him. Baty’s versatility permits Vientos to be the short side of a DH platoon at the very least, and almost any injury would give Vientos more sustained everyday time. He’s taking advantage of that first opportunity.
This isn’t to say Vientos is back to the player he was in 2024. There are some good signs: His bat speed is up, and he’s catching the ball on the sweet spot (for launch angle) more often. He’s chasing less, swinging and missing less, and striking out less. (He isn’t hitting the ball as hard as often, which is an early negative.)
But Vientos’ strong finish to last season had largely been overlooked, in part because he slumped in the final fortnight of the year. But Francisco Alvarez’s awesome finishing kick was a .921 OPS and eight homers over 139 plate appearances; Vientos had an .859 OPS and 10 homers over 145 plate appearances to close the year, which isn’t quite as good, but also isn’t nothing.
Marcus Semien has shown up
Sometimes you’re happy about what you didn’t write. I nearly wrote more thoroughly about Semien in this piece Thursday — about how off he looked at the plate and how concerning that was, given the way his last two seasons have gone. I waited — honestly, because the story was long enough as it was — and Semien had seven hits in San Francisco, including a few big ones.
Just as one bad week didn’t condemn him, one good series doesn’t absolve Semien in the long term. He’s swinging and missing more than he has over his career, leading to an unusually elevated strikeout rate. Over his four years in Texas, Semien struck out just over 15 percent of the time. He’s over 25 percent so far this season. So that’s something to watch for.
Marcus Semien was 7-for-15 in the four-game series at San Francisco. (Neville E. Guard / Imagn Images)
While Semien did strike out three times in four games in San Francisco, he did swing and miss a lot less — four times in 23 swings, compared with 12 times in his first 41 swings of the year. Yep, these are the granular data you try to make a narrative out of 10 games into the year.
The pitching staff has been pretty good
The Mets’ 2.53 team ERA ranks No. 3 in all of baseball. The starters’ 3.13 ERA is nice; the bullpen’s 1.66 ERA is remarkable, considering some of the challenges thrown its way early on. Once more, there are caveats to April pitching performance, especially in colder weather and in more pitcher-friendly ballparks. But the early signs from Nolan McLean, Clay Holmes and Kodai Senga in the rotation and from Tobias Myers plus the back end of the bullpen have been promising.
The exposition
The Mets rebounded from their series loss in St. Louis against the Cardinals by taking three of four in San Francisco. At 6-4, the Mets are tied for second in the National League East, a half-game behind the Miami Marlins.
The Arizona Diamondbacks split four games at home with Atlanta. Arizona is 5-5 and sits in second in the NL West behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Athletics scored three in the bottom of the 10th to take the rubber game from the Houston Astros in West Sacramento. Their 3-6 record is still good for last in the AL West. The A’s are in New York all week, starting with a three-game series in the Bronx on Tuesday.
The pitching possibles
versus Arizona
RHP Freddy Peralta (1-0, 4.36 ERA) v. RHP Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.60)
LHP David Peterson (0-1, 4.66) v. RHP Ryne Nelson (0-1, 5.79)
RHP Nolan McLean (1-0, 2.61) v. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (0-0, 0.00)
versus Athletics
RHP Clay Holmes (2-0, 1.42) v. RHP Luis Morales (0-2, 12.27)
RHP Kodai Senga (0-1, 3.09) v. LHP Jacob Lopez (0-1, 6.48)
RHP Freddy Peralta v. RHP Aaron Civale (1-0, 3.60)
Injury updates
Mets’ injured list
Player
Injury
Elig.
ETA
Left lat surgery
4/9
May
Rib fracture
5/24
June
Tommy John surgery
5/24
2027
Tommy John surgery
5/24
2027
Tommy John surgery
5/24
2027
Red = 60-day IL
Orange = 15-day IL
Blue = 10-day IL
Juan Soto left Friday’s game in the first inning with what’s been diagnosed as a minor calf strain. The Mets are waiting until they’re back in New York to make a decision on whether Soto can return early in the homestand or will require a stint on the 10-day injured list. That would knock him out of action until the second game of next week’s series in Los Angeles.
Brett Baty was a late scratch Sunday because of a jammed left thumb suffered on the basepaths Saturday. He should be good to go by Tuesday.
Minor-league schedule
Triple A: Syracuse v. Buffalo (Toronto)
Double A: Binghamton v. Somerset (New York, AL)
High A: Brooklyn at Jersey Shore (Philadelphia)
Low A: St. Lucie v. Dunedin (Toronto)
A note on the epigraph
This line comes from the short story “Mister Squishy,” which I think is my favorite Wallace short story. It’s remarkably layered and just really fun, once you get into it.
Trivia time
The Mets traded one member of Generation K (Bill Pulsipher) to the Diamondbacks and another (Jason Isringhausen) to the Athletics in 1999 and 2000. What pinch-hit specialist did they get for Pulsipher, and what reliever did they get for Isringhausen?
(I’ll reply to the correct answer in the comments.)