The New York Rangers’ hopes of finding an easy way out of this self-inflicted mess took a hit last week.

Winning the NHL Draft Lottery could have expedited team president Chris Drury’s retool, but the hockey gods didn’t do him any favors. The Blueshirts finished with the league’s third-worst record, yet got knocked back two spots and are now set to pick fifth overall on June 26 in Buffalo.

It’s hard to imagine Drury digging the Rangers out of this hole until he adds a couple of high-level players up front, and a top-three selection would have guaranteed one of the forwards most experts project as true play-drivers: dynamic wingers Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg and rising center Caleb Malhotra. Even a top-four pick would have made for a simpler choice: Cross your fingers that one of the forwards drops, and if not, take whoever you consider the No. 1 defenseman on the board.

At No. 5, the possible outcomes are much more varied. There likely won’t be consensus on whichever prospect New York selects, which puts the onus on Drury, director of amateur scouting John Lilley and the rest of the team’s scouts to roll up their sleeves and do this the hard way: through extensive preparation and thorough analysis. When their moment comes, they must operate with conviction — and, most importantly, get the pick right.

The Rangers’ history of making the wrong choice is well-documented. They made five consecutive lottery picks from 2017-21, which was supposed to set the franchise up for years to come, but none reached their perceived potential, with most falling woefully short. Alexis Lafrenière (No. 1 in 2020) still has a chance after finishing strong in 2025-26, but the other four are out of the organization entirely.

To be fair, none of those misses land at Lilley’s feet. He came on board following the 2021 draft and has dealt with some lean years as a result of Drury frequently trading picks to chase an elusive championship. Lilley has only made two first-round picks in four previous drafts at the helm — Gabe Perreault in 2023 and E.J. Emery in 2024 — with neither coming inside the top 20. This will be his first crack at a lottery pick, adding a layer of intrigue.

“I have a lot of faith in John Lilley and his amateur staff,” Drury said April 17.

That certainly appears to be the case. Drury made a slew of scouting changes in his first year-plus as president and GM, but he’s largely put his trust in Lilley and Co. since. The recent focus has shifted to the player development side, where director Jed Ortmeyer was replaced by Tanner Glass earlier this month.

Both departments shoulder blame for New York’s previous draft failures, but the people in charge have now been handpicked by Drury. That leaves nowhere to point the finger except at the top if the Rangers don’t nail it this year. Fans are understandably skeptical, but with a top-five pick, two first-rounders and 11 total selections, this represents an opportunity to begin restoring their trust. Or lose what little they have left.

Malhotra on the rise

On Sept. 19, NHL Central Scouting director Dan Marr caught his first OHL game of the 2025-26 season between the host Kitchener Rangers and visiting Brantford Bulldogs. He hadn’t seen a ton of Malhotra, who was restricted from trying out for any Team Canada age groups while previously playing in the BCHL and was just making his OHL debut. But Marr came away thinking he observed a center who could be one of the biggest risers in the 2026 NHL Draft class.

“I called our Ontario scout the next morning, and I said, ‘Nick (Smith), we’ve got to move this guy to an ‘A’ (grade) right now,’” recalled Marr, who has run NHL Central Scouting since 2011 following two decades as a scout for the Toronto Maple Leafs and director of amateur scouting and player development for the Atlanta Thrashers.

Marr and his team of 20 scouts ended up ranking Malhotra as the sixth-best North American prospect, but that decision was made prior to his explosion in the OHL playoffs. The son of former Rangers first-round pick Manny Malhotra (No. 7 in 1998) racked up 26 points (13 goals and 13 assists) through 15 postseason games while leading Brantford to Game 7 of the conference finals. Had they voted after the playoffs, Marr believes Malhotra would have landed higher.

“If you want a centerman, Caleb is your guy,” said Marr, who noted seeing some Patrice Bergeron-like qualities in terms of Malhotra’s character and ability to read the game.

NHL teams seem to be thinking along similar lines, with multiple league sources telling The Athletic they believe the 17-year-old will be picked in the top three.

“I would say Malhotra is not dropping past Vancouver (at No. 3),” said one scout, who also pointed to the potential influence of Malhotra’s father serving as a coach for Vancouver’s AHL affiliate, the Abbotsford Canucks.

With most expecting McKenna to go No. 1 to the Toronto Maple Leafs — although one source cautioned not to rule out Stenberg there — there’s a plausible scenario in which the San Jose Sharks take Stenberg or Malhotra at No. 2 and the Canucks snag whichever of the three is remaining.

“If I was a betting man, that’s the way I would bet it,” an NHL agent said.

Of course, there are still over six weeks for things to change. There’s notable intrigue about whether the forward-rich Sharks may opt for a defenseman, but even then, it’s hard to imagine Malhotra (or Stenberg) slipping past the Chicago Blackhawks at No. 4.

The Rangers haven’t drafted a first-round center since taking Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil in 2017, leaving their pipeline painfully thin at the most important skating position. Malhotra would be an obvious choice if he somehow made it to No. 5, but those odds are sounding increasingly long.

The trade-up possibility

Could New York move up to get him? That’s a question I’ve heard from many fans and a topic that came up in a few of my conversations.

San Jose’s spot at No. 2 is the primary target, with some logic behind that thinking. If the Sharks indeed prefer a defenseman, they could theoretically move back a few spots and still get a premium choice, all while collecting an extra asset or two for their troubles. GM Mike Grier has said, “I’m open to listening,” as he should. But what he’ll ask for in return is a critical unknown.

The popular name is Braden Schneider, a 24-year-old defenseman Drury is expected to shop around, and one we’ve previously reported has drawn interest from San Jose. But would the Rangers be willing to part with one of their very few trade chips just to move up three spots? I don’t have a firm answer on that, nor do I know if that would be enough to convince Grier.

A couple of sources were skeptical about the Sharks trading the pick at all, with one asking, “How many drafts have those top picks ever really changed?” So I asked NHL Stats for an assist and found out that a top-two pick has only been traded five times since the lottery was instituted in 1995 and none since 2003, when the Panthers sent the No. 1 pick (Marc-Andre Fleury) to the Penguins for the No. 3 pick (Nathan Horton). That was also the last time two teams traded within the top five, making it 22 years and counting since we’ve seen such a deal.

It remains a possibility to monitor for the reasons we’ve touched on. But here’s a scenario that might make more sense for the Sharks: Add even more firepower by taking Stenberg or Malhotra at No. 2, then use their forward excess to trade for a defenseman who can help immediately (like Schneider). That series of moves could better position them for a breakthrough next season, versus trading down and waiting a couple of years for whichever defensemen they take to be ready.

‘Pick your flavor’ defensemen

If the Rangers stand pat (or even trade down), the best player available will likely be a defenseman. But do any from a talented group of D prospects rise above the rest?

Chase Reid is ranked highest by both of The Athletic’s prospect writers, Corey Pronman and Scott Wheeler, but calling him the consensus No. 1 would be a stretch. “It’s kind of pick your flavor,” as another NHL agent put it, with different preferences for each team.

Handedness could sway the decision: Reid and Keaton Verhoeff lead the pack on the right side while Carson Carels and Alberts Šmits stand out on the left. New York has a bigger need on the left, but that could change if Schneider or fellow righty Will Borgen is traded this summer.

It’s something to consider, but the most important factor will be projecting all-around impact at the NHL level. This is where opinions vary.

“Nobody knows which one of these D is going to be the best in five years,” one scout bluntly said.

Ordering the defensemen sparked some of the fiercest debate among NHL Central Scouting. Marr favored Carels because he believes he’s the most well-rounded, but Reid ended up with a slight edge after a few rounds of voting.

“More of our guys felt comfortable with him,” Marr said. “The way they differentiated — and I can’t argue against what they’re saying — is that Chase Reid has the higher ceiling.”

That perceived upside is largely based on Reid’s offensive capabilities, but it’s notable that Carels outproduced him this past season, with 73 points (20 goals and 53 assists) in 58 games for WHL Prince George compared to 48 points (18 goals and 30 assists) for Reid in 45 games with OHL Soo. They’re each strong skaters who are similar in size, with both listed around 6-foot-2, but Carels is seen as more of a physical, minutes-eater. He’s leaving open the possibility of turning pro next season, while Reid is committed to Michigan State.

Verhoeff already has an NCAA season under his belt. His freshman campaign with the University of North Dakota was uneven, particularly with defensive coverage, but the 6-foot-3.5, 208-pounder was considered the best D prospect in the class entering the season and still brings enticing potential.

Meanwhile, one scout felt Šmits is the most pro-ready. Marr concurred with that assessment while indicating that he thinks NHL teams are higher on the big Latvian than some realize. Central Scouting ranked him second among international skaters, behind only Stenberg.

Carels and Reid feel like slight favorites at this early juncture, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Rangers target any of the four. Daxon Rudolph is another defenseman on the radar as a possible top-10 pick, but sources I spoke with slightly preferred the others over him.

Lawrence most likely among second-tier forwards

While most believe the Rangers will lean defense at No. 5, we shouldn’t totally discount a forward from the next tier.

There are two prospects who enter the conversation as next-best centers after Malhotra: Djurgårdens IF’s Viggo Björck and Boston University’s Tynan Lawrence. The former is ultra-skilled, having set his Swedish junior league’s record for points in a season with 74 in 2024-25. But the Drury-led Rangers tend to covet size, which is a box the 5-foot-9 Björck doesn’t check. One scout predicted the 18-year-old Swede will end up on the wing, which could diminish his draft value.

No one questioned Lawrence’s position — and while most thought No. 5 was a bit high for the Boston University product, it generally wasn’t viewed as an egregious reach, either. The 17-year-old was once expected to go in that range, but he’s slipped in many rankings after dealing with a preseason injury, then transitioning to BU halfway through the season. He experienced some growing pains, but NCAA competition is viewed as stiffer than many junior levels.

The year prior, Lawrence’s stock was trending up after serving as a go-to player for the USHL champion Muskegon Lumberjacks. If New York prioritizes adding center help, my sense is that he’d be the most likely candidate.