Even Gov. Kathy Hochul has tried to influence prediction markets.
“Oh, did you bet on the Knicks, me saying the Knicks,” Hochul told one reporter earlier this month. “It sounds like he may have bet on me saying the Knicks in the prediction markets. So I am going to make you a winner. The Knicks! We love the Knicks.”
What You Need To Know
New York and other states across the country are trying to regulate prediction markets, like Kalshi and Polymarket
A federal commission argues regulation is within its purview
The state has sued several companies, charging them with illegal gambling
Someone may have just made money in the increasingly popular world of prediction markets, where people can bet on the outcome of everything from sporting events to elections — and they are.
Head to one of the sites, Kalshi, and type in Mamdani’s name. You will see you can wager on whether the mayor will secure a tax on second homes. Or whether he will tax billionaires before 2027 — the market predicts no.
Or take some of the congressional primaries — people are betting big on Brad Lander over Dan Goldman.
The existence of these prediction markets, experts say, is setting off an increasingly tense battle between Democratic states, including New York, and the Trump administration.
“Given the way the transactions are arranged on Kalshi and Polymarket, it’s sort of like the way transactions on commodities markets, futures markets, options markets operate which is the domain of the Commodities Futures Trading Corporation, the CFTC, a federal regulatory agency,” Lawrence White of the NYU Stern School of Business said.
New York is a party in at least four lawsuits over the regulation of these sites.
In one suit, the state argues that the sites amount to illegal gambling — not licensed by the state Gaming Commission.
Last year, the state Gaming Commission sent a letter to Kalshi ordering it to cease and desist its betting on sports events.
Kalshi then sued the state. The company had no comment regarding the ongoing litigation.
Since then, the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sued the state, arguing that any regulation of these markets is within its purview.
The federal commission has now sued seven states on similar grounds, and the president this week echoed that sentiment, calling some Democratic officials trying to rein in the industry, like the state Attorney General Letitia James, “scum.”
Nonetheless, the state pushes forward.
Hochul signed an executive order last month banning state employees from insider trading on prediction markets, and legislation is pending in Albany to further regulate them.
“With the advent of prediction markets entering into New York State, we already have a legalized, structured sports betting operation,” Queens State Sen. Joseph Addabbo said. “I think regulation is the best situation, the best scenario we can be in.”