A bit of snow can make the difference between a cold, grey winter and something magical, but it also makes traveling all the more difficult for the millions of New Yorkers heading out for the holidays
New Yorkers are used to heavy snow forecasts in Winter, but this year might be particularly bad
As winter approaches, travelers and residents alike are bracing for what meteorologists are calling an “intense, stormy winter.”
According to AccuWeather’s 2025–2026 winter forecast, parts of New York State are set to experience a season of dramatic snow with early and late bursts of snow surrounding a quieter midwinter period.
The forecasters’ predictions show 12 cities across the US that are set to see the most snowfall with Buffalo, New York, at the top and New York City at number 10.
Buffalo set to be the snowiest city in the US winter 2025-26
The forecast predicts that Buffalo will see between 90 and 100 inches of snow this season, a notable increase from last winter’s 77.6 inches, though still hovering near its historical average of 95.4 inches.
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Meanwhile, New York City is expected to receive 17 to 21 inches, up from 12.9 inches last year but still below its typical average of 29.8 inches. These projections suggest that both upstate and downstate New York will have a more active winter than last year, even if totals fall short of record-breaking.
New York and Buffalo to see heavy snow this winter
In Buffalo, winter is shaped by the Great Lakes.
The city sits squarely within a “lake-effect snow belt,” where cold air passing over the relatively warm waters of Lake Erie creates heavy, localized snowfall. It’s a pattern that has defined Buffalo’s winters for generations — including the legendary Blizzard of 1977, when nearly 200 inches fell.
An unforgiving lake-effect snow blanketed the Great Lakes last year (Image: Anadolu via Getty Images)
Farther south, New York City faces a different kind of snow. The city is blanketed by nor’easters, powerful coastal storms that sweep up the Atlantic. While these systems can paralyze the city overnight, they also can transform it into a winter scene.
When will snow fall heavily on Buffalo and New York City
The early part of the season looks to bring the first major snow events. Buffalo typically sees its first lasting flakes by mid-November, while New York City usually waits until December for its first measurable snow.
Meteorologists expect a “bookend” winter, meaning significant storms are most likely in early December and early February, with a quieter stretch in between.
A person plays with a dog in front of the skyline of lower Manhattan and One World Trade Center in New York City after an overnight snowfall last year(Image: Getty Images)Snow can cause travel chaos as millions flock home for the holidays
For New Yorkers, snow means more than just slippery commutes. In Buffalo, it’s both a challenge but also a draw with many visitors coming for skiing.
Resorts like Kissing Bridge and Holiday Valley thrive when the snow falls heavy.
In New York City, snowfall transforms urban life into something cinematic: Central Park blanketed in white, Rockefeller Center’s rink alive with skaters, and even a rare chance for cross-country skiing in Prospect Park. But with many New Yorkers travelling away for the holiday period, heavy snow can cause chaos effecting driving conditions, flights and trains.