From Through the Looking Glass:
Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!
The Myles Garrett trade produced a lot of knee jerk reactions that range from “crown the Rams already” to “so what”. I get the instinct but I think all such reactions miss the crux of the issue.
Through 16 weeks last year, both the Seahawks and Rams played like all-time great teams. McVay lost his mind after they lost week 16 (*pin in that) and the Rams slipped down the stretch, but the Seahawks kept it together and completed a historically great season.
The NFL is so competitive that it’s a Red Queen’s Race just to stay in place. That’s why we talk about regression to the mean so much. The moment a team thinks they have found some small durable advantage; the league solves it and it poofs up in smoke.
So one thing we know is that both teams are going to suffer regression towards the mean somehow. Maybe it’s scheme solutions for McVay’s 2/3 TEs or Mac’s light defensive boxes. Maybe its brain drain from poached coaches. Maybe players like Puka and JSN can’t repeat last year’s performance. Maybe it’s injury luck. Maybe it’s age related decline for players like DLaw, or Stafford. Maybe it’s a combination of all those things.
The question is, how is each team attempting to stave off regression? The Rams’ answer has been crystal clear: star players. They know they can’t count on the offense to be as good as it was last year, so they have taken several big swings to add individual talents to the defensive side.
Seattle’s approach hasn’t been as obvious (especially nationally), because they haven’t taken any big obvious swings. I believe they see their durable advantage as being culture, competition , and roster resilience. We hear a lot about how they lost the SB MVP, but how often is it mentioned that they are returning 70 of their top 75 players (including IR) from last year?
So is it going to work? Will either of these teams beat regression?
I see the Rams path as the higher ceiling route. If everyone is healthy and nobody regresses, it’s conceivable they could go 16-1 with a +250 point differential. It takes so little for it to go wrong for them though. Suppose everything goes great except: Nacua holds out for a month and isn’t really right all season, Adams’ performance declines another big notch, and all their WR#3 concerns are valid. How good are they if their passing game is exclusively TEs? Even with Stafford, Garrett, and McDuffie, is that a 12 win team?
Seattle’s ceiling is basically the same as last year, and their floor is really high. Assuming the RB situation works out in aggregate and JSN remains a force (at least 1200 yards), it’s hard for me to see them winning fewer than 12 games unless they get hammered with injuries. I have some concerns about CB, but at every other position their depth is so strong that the best player in that position group could miss a month without it being a big deal.
Back to the topic of regression. I think it’s very unlikely this is going to be a division with two 14-2 teams facing off week 18. One of these teams is going to regress somewhat and ultimately while Myles Garrett clearly makes the Rams better than they were a week ago, I don’t think he radically changes that fact.
* A word on coaching. This probably deserves its own post, but MacDonald is flat out a better HC than McVay. Mike is both better in game and he’s better at developing a 70-man roster. He’s also more steady if things get rough.