New York’s electric power system may face shortfalls in supply starting next summer due to rising consumer demand and power plant retirements outpacing new construction. The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) warned that the grid is at a significant inflection point and needs “several thousand megawatts of new dispatchable generation” within the next 10 years. The state’s aging infrastructure, rapid growth of large loads like data centers, and difficulty in developing new supply drive the state’s “profound reliability challenges.” The issue could potentially affect the Hudson Valley, too.
ALBANY, N.Y. (NEXSTAR) — New York’s electric power system faces possible shortfalls in supply starting next summer in New York City and on Long Island because of rising consumer demand and power plant retirements outpacing new construction. The New York Independent System Operator outlined the risks, cautioning about the grid’s significant inflection point.
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Zach Smith—the Senior Vice President of System and Resource Planning at NYISO, the organization that manages and plans the state’s electric grid and market—said the system needs “several thousand megawatts of new dispatchable generation.” The organization issued its short-term assessment of reliability for the third quarter of 2025 and a draft of the 2025 to 2034 comprehensive reliability plan. These reports preview the next five and 10 years, respectively.
The CRP warns that aging infrastructure, the rapid growth of large loads like data centers, and more difficulty in developing new supply drives the state’s “profound reliability challenges.” NYISO Senior Vice President of System and Resource Planning Zach Smith said the system may need “several thousand megawatts of new dispatchable generation” within the next 10 years, depending on future demand and retirement patterns.
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The STAR report projected shortfalls in New York City and on Long Island within the next three years. The city’s concerns center on the retirement of 32 generator units on the Gowanus 2 and 3 and Narrows 1 and 2 barges in New York City, totaling 672 megawatts. These retirements followed a 2019 Department of Environmental Conservation regulation limiting nitrogen oxides emissions from simple-cycle combustion turbines.
New York City may be 410 to 650 megawatts short for six to eight peak summer hours a day during 2026. The shortage could be as much as 1,130 megawatts by 2030, over eight to 13 hours. The short-term assessment of reliability for quarter 2 of 2023 previously identified a similar issue, so NYISO required the Gowanus and Narrows units to stay online past a DEC deadline of May 1, 2025.
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The issue could potentially affect the Hudson Valley, too. NYISO projected the region to be short by 260 megawatts over three hours in 2030 as the shortage spreads from NYC.
Long Island’s shortfalls would be driven by the deactivation notices at Pinelawn Power 1, worth 82 megawatts, and Far Rockaway Gas Turbine 1 and 2, worth 121 megawatts. The area is projected to be short by 39 to 116 megawatts starting in summer 2027, reaching 175 megawatts by 2030. NYISO determined that the Far Rockaway gas turbines and the Pinelawn generator have to operate as interim service providers compensated under a regulated rate starting December 25, 2025, to address that short term gap.
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Long term, the most pessimistic outlook had the state short by up to 10,000 megawatts by 2034. The decade-long CRP recognized the state’s reliance on aging plants as a major threat. About 25% of the state’s total power comes from plants that have been operating for over 50 years.
The CRP estimated that about 3,000 megawatts of fossil-fuel power could be lost unexpectedly by 2034, with 60% of that risk concentrated in NYC. Two upstate nuclear generators, R.E. Ginna and Nine Mile Point 1, are the oldest nuclear facilities still in operation in the entire country, with licenses set to expire by 2035.
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Uncertainty over future demand—largely fueled by corporate interests—further complicates the issue. In September, NYISO tallied over 10,000 megawatts of large load projects—like semiconductor manufacturing and data centers—proposed by 2031. That’s almost double the previous year, at an average demand of 285 megawatts. NYISO said that this growth “far outpace[s] the development of new supply.”
Responding to the NYISO numbers, the New York Building Congress worried that, for every two megawatts of power retired, “only one megawatt is added.” The group called for urgent action to address the crisis, including expediting projects like the Northeast Supply Enhancement project, expanding transmission, and adding storage to supply the power grid with “firm, dispatchable power.”
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The Business Council of New York State, Inc., through President and CEO Heather Mulligan, echoed the call for an “all-of-the-above” approach. Mulligan cautioned that state mandates limiting supply would “hurt the state’s overall economic climate” and discourage chip manufacturers from bringing business to the state.
And Republican Assemblymember Matt Simpson criticized the state’s energy policies, arguing that Governor Kathy Hochul and Democratic legislators should “modernize our grid and incentivize diverse energy sources” to keep power bills for New Yorkers.
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But Earthjustice New York Policy Advocate Liz Moran argued that there’s not enough evidence that the state needs “several thousand megawatts of new dispatchable generation.” Still, she said the solution would be more support for battery storage and transmission technology, not relying on “dirty, expensive, gas-burning power plants.”
Moran said that continuing to rely on fossil fuels would also run counter to state climate laws. Earthjustice contended that 50,000 megawatts of clean energy projects remain “stuck in the interconnection queue, which could be built faster and cheaper than new gas.” The environmental organization noted that the statewide system still maintains ample protection, showing 192% to 1,250% of the industry-standard safeguard against power shortfalls.
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The reports acknowledged that Champlain Hudson Power Express transmission line bringing hydroelectric from Canada is expected to enter service in May 2026, delivering 1,250 megawatts into NYC in the summer. Other planned additions include the 816 megawatt Empire Wind offshore project by July 2027 and the 1,300 megawatt Propel New York Public Policy Transmission Project for Long Island, expected in May 2030.
The analysis projected that by 2034, emergency measures will be used for about three times as many hours and about five times as much energy, compared to 2026. NYISO recommended a shift in its planning process in response to the June 2025 heatwave, which saw the system peak.
Take a look at the reports below: