Zohran Mamdani is likely to win in New York City’s mayoral election today, according to betting odds.

According to online gambling website Polymarket, a platform where users can place bets on the likelihood of world events, the New York assemblymember, a democratic socialist, has a large lead over his rivals, independent Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa.

A Cuomo spokesperson told Newsweek: “At one point those markets had Cuomo at like 95 percent in the primary. Experts said those markets are at risk of being manipulated by foreign influence. The only market that counts is the one attached to a ballot scanner. “

Newsweek also reached out to Mamdani via email for comment.

Why It Matters

The New York mayoral race has attracted national attention. Whichever candidate wins will have a significant influence over America’s most populous city and tackle a range of issues, including affordability, crime, and the city’s relationship with the wider Democratic Party and President Donald Trump.

Mamdani has emerged as the leading candidate among the city’s most progressive voters in the mayoral election due to policy proposals that include rent freezes and the establishment of city-owned grocery stores to combat rising costs. He has been endorsed by New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democrat, independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, and New York Governor Kathy Hochul.

Cuomo’s election bid marks his return to public life after he resigned as New York governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual misconduct. Cuomo has consistently denied the accusations, and no charges have ever been brought against him.

What To Know

According to Polymarket, Mamdani has a 94 percent chance of winning the election, while Cuomo has a 6 percent chance.

On October 13, Mamdani’s odds were at 88.3 percent, and Cuomo’s were 10.8 percent; thus, Mamdani’s odds have increased by 5.7 percentage points in the last weeks of the campaign.

Mamdani is expected to win the election, according to the latest polls. Marist University’s poll of 792 likely voters, conducted from October 24 to 28, had Mamdani up 16 points over his rival, Cuomo, at 48 percent to 32 percent. Sliwa was at 16 percent.

Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research polled 971 likely voters for Fox News between October 24 to 28 and also gave Mamdani a 16-point lead at 47 percent to Cuomo’s 31 percent, with Sliwa behind at 15 percent.

What People Are Saying

Zohran Mamdani wrote in a post on X on Saturday: “It is in our hands, my friends. Three more days.”

Independent candidate Andrew Cuomo said in an X post on November 1: “The gap is closing fast—we can feel it on the ground everywhere from the Bronx to Staten Island. At this rate, we win the race. Keep going strong.”

Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa said in an October 31 X post: “Two names, one mask: Mamdani = Cuomo. New Yorkers know this. Vote Curtis Sliwa and end the horror show.”

President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social in July: “As President of the United States, I’m not going to let this Communist Lunatic destroy New York. Rest assured, I hold all the levers, and have all the cards.”

What Happens Next

Polls close at 9 p.m. in New York and 8 p.m. in New Jersey. Election officials have indicated that the results are expected to be released quickly, with preliminary tallies expected as soon as 10 p.m.

Incumbent Eric Adams’ term ends on December 31, 2025.