The Pittsburgh Pirates head to the Bronx for a Tuesday night matchup against the New York Yankees, with first pitch set for 7:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium. Will Warren (7-4, 4.03 ERA) gets the ball for New York, while Pittsburgh counters with Bubba Chandler (3-8, 4.77 ERA). Polymarket has the Yankees as clear favorites, and the market has been trending in their direction over the past several days.

Game Details

TeamsPittsburgh Pirates vs. New York YankeesDateTuesday, July 21, 2026First Pitch7:05 PM EDTVenueYankee StadiumHome StarterWill Warren (7-4, 4.03 ERA)Away StarterBubba Chandler (3-8, 4.77 ERA)

Moneyline

TeamPricePittsburgh Pirates43¢New York Yankees58¢

The Yankees have pulled steadily away from a near coin-flip earlier in the week, with their price climbing to 58¢ against the Pirates’ 43¢. That move has coincided with a notable pitching matchup edge in New York’s favor on paper.

Spread

MarketPricePirates +1.559¢Yankees -1.542¢

Total Runs

MarketPriceOver 9.545¢Under 9.556¢

The market leans toward a lower-scoring game, with the under on 9.5 runs favored at 56¢ — consistent with two starters who’ve each shown they can limit damage on a given night.

Will There Be a Run in the First Inning?

OutcomePriceYes53¢No50¢

Extra Innings?

OutcomePriceYes12¢No93¢

The market is confidently pricing this one to be decided in nine innings, with extra innings sitting at just 12¢.

First 5 Innings

MarketPricePirates42¢Draw19¢Yankees52¢Pirates +1.5 (spread)69¢Yankees -1.5 (spread)37¢Over 4.5 (total)57¢Under 4.5 (total)46¢

The first-five-innings market mirrors the full-game lean, with the Yankees favored at 52¢ and the over on 4.5 runs through five slightly favored at 57¢ — suggesting the market expects most of the scoring to come early rather than late.

MLB Prediction MarketsPlatformMLB Eligible?July ’26 Sign-Up BonusVerified Promo CodesPolymarketYes$50CUSE, MASS, OREGON, SILIVEKalshiYes$10SYRACUSE, OREGONLIVE1, MASSLIVE1, SILIVE

All odds sourced from Polymarket and subject to change. All times EDT. First pitch: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 7:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium. Polymarket is a prediction market platform, not a sportsbook. Users trade positions on event outcomes using real funds. Must be 18+ and eligible under applicable law. Trading involves risk.

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