Because of cutbacks, changes to methodology and the possible inclusion of a citizenship question, the 2030 Census is expected to the most challenging citizenship count in history.
In June, the U.S. Department of Commerce submitted a proposed rule on the following: “Decennial Census of the Population of Americans, Proposed Residence Criteria and Proposed Regulations for Demographic Questions.”
There have been no additional details released, but according to a Rapid Response Briefing produced by groups including the Association of Public Data Users and the Census Quality Reinforcement Taskforce, the proposed rules changes may mean reforms to residence criteria; changes to demographic questions, including adding a citizenship question; and changes to questions about race and ethnicity.
All of these changes could mean a lower census count in New York state which is already projected to lose at least two congressional districts under the current rules.
Experts are also expecting to see a corresponding push by New York Democrats to find every possible seat using mid-decade redistricting, if a constitutional amendment allowing it is passed by voters.
According to Jeff Wice, a distinguished fellow and distinguished adjunct professor of law at New York Law School, and director of the New York Elections, Census and Redistricting Institute, the midterm elections will determine how much of a driving force redistricting will be in New York state.
If the Democrats win Congress by a comfortable margin, he says, it won’t be as critical for New York to embark on an aggressive round of redistricting. If the margin is close, or if Republicans maintain control, it’s likely that Democrats in New York would be more aggressive.
Wice is also looking ahead to the next presidential election.
“In 2028, we need to see who controls the White House after Donald Trump leaves and would a new president bring the Census process back to the way it’s been conducted in recent decades or will the next president be stuck with a completely challenging process, probably the hardest census to take in American history,” he said.
The state constitutional amendment that the legislature approved in June will need second approval by the legislature in January. After that, it will need to go before New York State voters. If the amendment is approved, the 2028 cycle of mid-decade redistricting would begin.
If it passes, the amendment would also:
Eliminate the ban against partisan gerrymandering
Eliminate the requirement that districts are compact
Rework language on minority representation
Permit the legislature in the future to pass maps with a simple majority vote
While first passage of a new redistricting constitutional amendment was a top priority for lawmakers this session, according to a recent Siena University poll, it’s not a priority for New York voters. Siena found that only 21% of respondents think the amendment is a good idea, while 44% think it’s not.