Happy Trade Deadline Week, as the clock goes tick tock, tick tock…
Discussions are heating up, with all 30 clubs exchanging texts, emails and phone calls at a fast and furious pace. Some blockbuster deals are expected, and there are bound to be a few surprises, so get ready for the fireworks show, which will end officially at 6 p.m. ET on Aug. 3.
There has been very little action thus far, with the biggest deal of note the swap between the Boston Red Sox and Washington Nationals that sent Curtis Mead to Boston and Connelly Early to Washington. Unfortunately, the impact of that deal was put on hold when Mead suffered a fractured wrist during his second at-bat in his Boston debut. Early, who was on the injured list at the time of the deal, is expected to be out a couple more weeks with elbow inflammation. Eventually, that trade should help both teams. (The Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels pulled off a smaller deal on Wednesday, with the Rangers acquiring catcher Logan O’Hoppe and reliever Chase Silseth for infield prospect Angel Arredondo.)
The Mead-Early trade could be a sign of things to come, as it was between two teams with a shot at a postseason spot rather than a trade between a true buyer and a true seller. We could see several of those types of deals, as only a handful of teams are further than five games out from at least a wild-card berth.
That deal also shows that teams will have to overpay for right-handed power. Putting aside Mead’s injury (which was just bad luck), when evaluating the trade, the Nationals got the better end of the deal in terms of value, but both teams got exactly what they needed. Front offices aren’t looking to “win” trades but rather to put their team in a better position to win a championship. The Red Sox likely didn’t “win” this deal in terms of future value, but before Mead’s unfortunate injury, it put them in a much better position to win this year. This could be a sign of things to come in future deals at this year’s deadline.
In talking with front-office heads in both leagues, I’m hearing that teams are not expecting a flurry of moves until the weekend. According to the execs I’ve spoken with, several teams are still deciding not only whether to buy or sell, but also what they are looking for to improve. For several teams, their needs are different than they were even a week ago. That indecision has made deals more difficult to close so far.
With all of that in mind, here are the things you need to keep track of as we head into the heart of trade deadline mania.
First, let’s look at the buyers, sellers and everyone in between:
Definite buyers
American League: Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, Guardians, Rangers, Mariners and Astros
National League: Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, Phillies and Cubs
Definite sellers
American League: Angels, Royals, Athletics and Blue Jays
National League: Mets, Giants and Rockies
Expected to buy, but could also sell
American League: Orioles and Twins
National League: Pirates, Cardinals, Padres and Diamondbacks
Still on the fence
American League: Tigers
National League: Marlins, Reds and Nationals
Five storylines to watchTarik Skubal: Will he stay or will he go?
The headliner of this year’s deadline is two-time AL Cy Young Award winner Skubal. But will the Tigers actually trade him? If they do, they’ll likely also trade their second-best starting pitcher, Casey Mize, and their closer, Kenley Jansen.
It really could go either way. They are still within arm’s reach of the wild-card but aren’t playing well at the moment. However, through Tuesday’s games, they were tied with the Rays in run differential (+39), reflecting the talent on their roster. If they trade Skubal and/or Mize, their season is basically over.
The Tigers remain undecided on whether to trade their ace, and the decision will have a ripple effect on the entire trade market. (Paul Sancya / Associated Press)
That said, since they haven’t been able to extend Skubal and aren’t even negotiating a new deal right now, I believe they would be better off trading him and getting back a haul of prospects who will make them better in the long term. They have a strong core of young players, including the best catcher in baseball in Dillon Dingler, one of the best young hitters in the game in rookie Kevin McGonigle and an emerging superstar in left fielder Riley Greene.
If there are trades available that allow them to load up on pitching at both the major- and minor-league levels in deals for Skubal and Mize, then that’s the direction they should go. I don’t think the Tigers are a World Series team this year despite the parity in the AL.
I do understand the argument for going for it because there isn’t a dominant team in the AL, but if the Tigers keep Skubal and Mize and don’t make the playoffs, they’ll have set the organization back a few years.
New York, New York: Mets and Yankees the biggest seller and buyer?
The Mets are expected to be the most aggressive and most prolific sellers, as they have two starting pitchers to dangle in Freddy Peralta and Clay Holmes and a plethora of bullpen arms, including Luke Weaver, A.J. Minter, Brooks Raley and Huascar Brazobán. They also have right-handed hitting outfielders Luis Robert Jr. and Tyrone Taylor and a couple of catchers everyone wants in Francisco Alvarez and Luis Torrens.
Meanwhile, the Yankees could be the biggest buyers with their needs growing rapidly due to injuries. The latest blow came when star left fielder Cody Bellinger was placed on the IL with a hamstring injury. He will be out four to six weeks, which means they might not get Aaron Judge or Bellinger back until September or later.
The Yankees have a lot of needs, from a right-handed hitting outfielder to a right-handed hitting catcher to a starting pitcher to a high-leverage reliever. They’ll also be in play if any impact players are actually traded, like Skubal and Padres closer Mason Miller. The Yankees have plenty to offer in trades thanks to a deep farm system, multiple major-league starters they could include in deals, as well as left-handed hitting outfielders already in The Show.
New York, New York … Frank Sinatra and Jay Z, get ready to sing, baby.
Will contender-to-contender trades dominate over buyer-seller trades?
There just aren’t a lot of sellers, and most of them don’t have a lot to sell. The Rockies could deal their star catcher Hunter Goodman, but beyond that, they only have back-of-the-rotation and bullpen arms to deal. The Royals could dangle starting pitchers Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo along with Lane Thomas — who is more of a fourth-outfielder type — or a set-up reliever, but not much beyond that. The A’s are likely to hold on to their young core, leaving back-end starters and role players as their only major trade chips.
Among the other sellers, the Angels have Reid Detmers, José Soriano, Zach Neto and Jo Adell to offer. The Giants and Blue Jays have some solid veterans on expiring contracts available: Robbie Ray, Tyler Mahle and Luis Arraez in San Francisco and Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Daulton Varsho and George Springer in Toronto. Aside from those teams and the Mets, most of the teams making deals will be contenders.
Several big names rumored to be available are not likely to be moved
A few weeks ago, all we kept hearing was how Mike Trout was going to be traded to the Phillies. Well, we can stop the rumors; it’s not happening. He doesn’t want to be traded, he has a full no-trade clause, Angels owner Arte Moreno doesn’t want to trade him and the Angels interim GM John Mozeliak says he’s not going to trade him.
Similarly, Mason Miller isn’t going anywhere. Teams may offer the Padres their best prospect, and the answer will still be no. The only way he is traded is if it’s a Juan Soto-type deal where the Padres get four top-10 prospects in return. As of this writing, no one has made an offer close to that.
For much of the season, it was rumored that the Twins would be open to trading stars Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton, but that isn’t happening. In fact, the Twins are looking to add and are trying to improve their bullpen.
The Marlins’ season took a turn recently with a 12-game losing streak, but even that isn’t likely to push them to trade Sandy Alcantara. And the Giants aren’t trading Rafael Devers, Willy Adames and Matt Chapman at this trade deadline. Their bad contracts and current underperformance complicate any potential deals. Of course, I learned a long time ago in baseball that anything can happen, but as of now there is zero momentum.
Can the Brewers and Rays prove there is no need for a hard salary cap?
If the Dodgers win their third consecutive title this year with a payroll that is $300 million more than that of the Brewers and Rays, it will just fuel MLB owners who want to impose a lockout for the entire 2027 season in order to get a hard salary cap like in the NFL, NBA and NHL. However, if there is a World Series between the Brewers and Rays and one of them acquires Skubal at the deadline and the other team also adds big, then the argument for the cap should lessen during these labor negotiations and open a clearer path to an agreement in time for a 2027 season.
The MLBPA should be rooting hard for those small-market teams to outmaneuver the big-market teams at the deadline.
Front office leaders under the most pressure
David Stearns, New York Mets
Yes, he’s under contract for two more years, but in all probability has one more year to turn things around and keep his job long-term. He has the most talent to trade at the deadline, and he also will be under the most pressure.
Brian Cashman, New York Yankees
As the Yankees GM, he’s always dealing with the most pressure, but unlike Stearns, Cashman isn’t fighting to keep his job but rather to get the Yankees back to the World Series.
The Mariners need to take advantage of their current window to make a deep playoff run. (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
Jerry Dipoto, Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are the most disappointing team in baseball. Based on their present roster, they should be in first place with a healthy lead, but instead are fighting for their survival. Seattle needs to trade for a right-handed impact bat and another high-leverage reliever if they’re going to win the AL West. The pressure is on while this team’s window for winning is still open.
Dave Dombrowski, Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are an aging team with a roster filled with stars and scrubs. When the trio of Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesús Luzardo start, they are a playoff team. When anyone else starts, they are one of the worst teams in baseball.
Their offense is centered around Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Brandon Marsh, but after that they don’t have a major-league-average performer this year and Turner has really struggled. They are built to win in October but might not get there if Dombrowski doesn’t deal for a back-end starter (or two), another reliever and a right-handed hitting outfielder.
The pressure is on with the Phillies’ contention window closing rapidly.
Chris Getz, Chicago White Sox
Getz has taken Chicago from 102 losses last year to first place in the AL Central. If he’s going to hold on to the division lead, he needs to trade for a starting pitcher, a reliever and a catcher. The White Sox are the best story in baseball, and now it’s time to finish the job.
Dana Brown, Houston Astros
Brown is working under an expiring contract. With most of his offseason moves to improve their pitching backfiring, he might need a strong trade at the deadline and a playoff berth to get what would be a well-deserved contract extension.
Front office leaders under the least pressure
Andrew Friedman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Easily the least pressure in baseball. Friedman’s organization has the most money, the best front office and the best talent top to bottom. He doesn’t have to make a single trade for his team to be the favorite to win it all once again.
Matt Arnold, Milwaukee Brewers
Arnold has the second-best team in the sport despite having one of the smallest payrolls. His farm system is loaded. Even if he does nothing, the Brewers are very likely to win the NL Central. He’ll try to make an impact and take a shot at acquiring another playoff starter, but there is no pressure if he doesn’t land one.
What other surprises could we see?
If there is going to be a surprise at this year’s deadline, it’s going to come from a small- to middle-market team that hasn’t been able to sign their young star players to long-term contracts deciding they want to trade them now while their trade value is at its peak.
Examples of this could be CJ Abrams of the Nationals, Elly De La Cruz of the Reds, Oneil Cruz of the Pirates or Adley Rutschman of the Orioles.
Best available playersStarting pitchers
Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Hunter Greene, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Casey Mize, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Foster Griffin, LHP, Washington Nationals
Trevor Rogers, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
Kevin Gausman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Shane Bieber, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Emerson Hancock, RHP, Seattle Mariners
José Soriano, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
Reid Detmers, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
Robbie Ray, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Michael Wacha, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Clay Holmes, RHP, New York Mets
Freddy Peralta, RHP, New York Mets
Luis Castillo, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Kris Bubic, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Dustin May, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Tyler Mahle, RHP, San Francisco Giants
Seth Lugo, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Brady Singer, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
If the Padres make Mason Miller available, he’ll be the top reliever on the market. (Denis Poroy / Imagn Images)
Relievers
Mason Miller, RHP, San Diego Padres
Louis Varland, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Adrian Morejon, LHP, San Diego Padres
Luke Weaver, RHP, New York Mets
Huascar Brazobán, RHP, New York Mets
A.J. Minter, LHP, New York Mets
Kenley Jansen, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Brooks Raley, LHP, New York Mets
John Schreiber, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Lucas Erceg, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Peter Fairbanks, RHP, Miami Marlins
Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Antonio Senzatela, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Top position players
Catchers
Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies
Shea Langeliers, Athletics (injured; likely out for season)
Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets
Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins
Ryan Jeffers, Minnesota Twins
Brandon Valenzuela, Toronto Blue Jays
Keibert Ruiz, Washington Nationals
Luis Torrens, New York Mets
Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds
First base
Rafael Devers, San Francisco Giants
Luis García, Washington Nationals
Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds (injured; off the market)
Second base
Luis Arraez, San Francisco Giants
Gleyber Torres, Detroit Tigers
Willi Castro, Colorado Rockies
Marcus Semien, New York Mets
Shortstop
CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals (highly doubtful)
Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (highly doubtful)
Zach Neto, Los Angeles Angels
Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles
Willy Adames, San Francisco Giants
Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres
Third base
Bo Bichette, New York Mets
Matt Chapman, San Francisco Giants
Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins
Eugenio Suárez, Cincinnati Reds
Brett Baty, New York Mets
Outfielders
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates
Colton Cowser, Baltimore Orioles
George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays
Teoscar Hernández, Los Angeles Dodgers
Lawrence Butler, Athletics
Luis Robert Jr., New York Mets
Taylor Ward, Baltimore Orioles
Lane Thomas, Kansas City Royals
Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels
Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays
Trevor Larnach, Minnesota Twins
JJ Bleday, Cincinnati Reds
Heliot Ramos, San Francisco Giants
Tyrone Taylor, New York Mets
Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis Cardinals
Mickey Moniak, Colorado Rockies
Jake McCarthy, Colorado Rockies
Jorge Soler, Los Angeles Angels