One year ago, the biggest question attached to New York’s 21st Congressional district was whether or not U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik would throw her hat in the ring for governor. Twelve months later and three months until Election Day, the drama stemming from Stefanik’s brief nomination to UN ambassador and short-lived gubernatorial campaign are fueling an unexpectedly competitive race in the normally red district which she has won easily for several cycles.
Just how much, if at all, the drama could impact GOP margins in the congressional contest up to the top of the ticket in the race for governor remains to be seen, but experts say Republicans should at least be wary as Republican businessman Anthony Constantino faces Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien.
“This comes with a little bit of an odd introduction to the campaign. It makes it more problematic,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist University Institute for Public Opinion.
The contest to represent the North Country district has already had plenty of drama.
There was the aborted special election after Stefanik was briefly nominated to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, followed by a testy and bruising Republican primary this spring over who would ultimately replace her on the ticket.
“The uncertainty factor becomes higher rather than just being an automatic seat where Stefanik gets it,” Miringoff said. “Generally Republicans are concerned about turning out their base and getting that kind of enthusiasm going right now, the Democrats generally are showing more enthusiasm to vote in November. That is the danger to Republicans around the country. It could play out in this district only because of the odd opening salvos within the party and some ill will that exists.”
State Assemblyman Robert Smullen’s exit from the race and from the Conservative Party line left Constantino, CEO of Amsterdam based Sticker Mule, as the sole Republican candidate facing Gendebien. Miringoff said consolidating the Republican ballot can only help ease some of the tension in the normally red district but that doesn’t mean it will end it.
“That presumably will only help the GOP ticket,” he said.
But in a midterm election that could be driven by political conditions favoring Democrats and by the governor’s race at the top of the ticket, Miringoff said an even earlier political drama could hurt Constantino in a year when the district appears unusually competitive.
Stefanik withdrew from the governor’s race after President Donald Trump declined to endorse a candidate. The Republican nomination ultimately went to Blakeman, who Miringoff explained may not inspire the same level of enthusiasm among North Country Republicans that Stefanik would have generated and there could be lingering tensions over how the situation went down.
“The way she was treated or not treated, and how she didn’t succeed in becoming the gubernatorial candidate, and Trump’s role in all of that — I don’t think that was necessarily lost on the voters of the district,” Miringoff said.
Republican strategist Chapin Fay agreed with Miringoff that Stefanik’s absence could have a real effect on turnout in the district, but he believes it is more likely to damage Blakeman than Constantino, and urged the Blakeman campaign to build that concern into their campaign.
“I do think it’s going to affect Blakeman’s campaign more than Constantino,” said Fay, founder of Lighthouse Public Affairs. “Congressional races are local issues that deal with federal issues, but they’re local races. Constantino worked hard. He was everywhere. He spent a lot of money.”
Miringoff added that the question is not necessarily whether Republicans who are dissatisfied with the Trump administration or the dynamics of the race will vote for Gendebien. It may be whether they vote at all.
“They’re not going to rush to Democrats, but they might stay home, and in a close race, that can make a difference,” Miringoff said.
Democratic strategist Jack O’Donnell told Spectrum News 1 that Gendebien will need to pair any Republican malaise with momentum among independent voters to pull off an upset.
“Those are the folks who maybe doubt both parties, and I think there are a lot of people out there who say, ‘Maybe I’ve had enough of Republicans. I’m not happy with Congress and the White House,’” said O’Donnell, managing partner of O’Donnell & Associates. “But at the same time, they’re asking, ‘What are Democrats doing?’”
Despite the drama, Constantino has the endorsement of Stefanik, Trump and state Republican Party leaders. The coming months will test whether that support is enough to preserve the GOP’s longstanding advantage in the district — or whether the unusual circumstances surrounding the race have created an opening for Democrats.