The weather service, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said late last week that the El Niño has a 90 percent chance of becoming a very strong event during the 2026-27 fall and winter. The agency said there’s a 69 percent chance El Niño will be stronger than any event in the record dating to 1950.
El Niño’s effects are already being felt across the country, though they differ from region to region. Through early fall, the Southwest, Rockies and nearby Plains may skew wetter than normal, while the Pacific Northwest leans hotter and drier. Parts of the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest also may be drier into late summer, while the South and Southeast have a more mixed rainfall signal. Along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, El Niño typically increases wind shear that can suppress hurricanes, while the eastern and central Pacific often become more favorable for tropical storm development.