New York construction industry could be hit hardest as Canadian U.S. trade war continues

CAPITAL REGION, NY (WRGB) — Starting next week, Canadian retaliatory tariffs are taking effect.

The tariffs are up to 50% on American products.

The tariffs are projected to impact $20 billion worth of American goods; materials like lumber, steel, and dairy could be the hardest hit.

It could mean New Yorkers will spend even more money.

We see data coming out of the Fed that shows that 90% of the costs of tariffs are passed along to, you know, U.S. businesses and consumers,” said Justin Wilcox, Executive Director of Upstate United. “That’s having an impact on people’s pocketbooks at a time when they can least afford it.”

An industry hit the hardest by tariffs: construction.

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The National Association of Home Builders predicts a $10,000 to $14,000 increase per home.

“It’s going to get passed on to the buyers,” said Capital Region real estate agent Rebecca Cavalieri. “With that, you know, we’re still hovering at interest rates of like 6.5%, and just that extra 10 to $15,000 is going to push some buyers out of that market, which could really slow down new construction and new developments as well.”

So, what to do if you’re planning a renovation or home construction project that can’t wait?

“Lock in with your builder right now,” added Cavaleri. “Make sure they don’t have any clauses that they can increase the price of building materials because we saw a lot of that during COVID, because it was fluctuating so much with everything happening with the war. We did already see a huge jump in pricing over the spring.”

According to an April 2026 report from the New York State Comptroller, Canada is the state’s most significant trading partner.

In 2025, exports to Canada declined by $3.8 billion due to tariffs.

“That’s not a good thing for those exporters; those increased costs. We see in Canada already a resistance to US products because we’re having this trade war,” added Wilcox.

Wilcox says another area that’s been indirectly hit by tariffs is tourism.

Hotels, restaurants, and attractions in New York have seen a decrease in Canadian tourists.

In the same report, the comptroller says in 2025 the state saw a loss of over 176,000 visitors.