NEW YORK CITY – Election Day is just three weeks away, and the New York City mayoral race is coming down to the wire between Queens assemblymember Zohran Mamdani, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa.
While most polls heavily favor Mamdani, what do the betting odds suggest?
Betting odds for New York City mayor
By the numbers:
Polymarket has Mamdani at an 88% chance to win the race, followed by Cuomo at 11%. New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who abruptly dropped out of the race last month, is at 1%. Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa resides at under 1%.
Kalshi has similar odds, with Mamdani at 87%, Cuomo at 13%, and both Adams and Sliwa under 1%.
Oddschecker has Mamdani at -1250 to win, which means you’ll need to wager $1,250 to win $100 – if Mamdani wins. Cuomo is at +600, which means if you wager $100, and Cuomo wins, you’d get $600. Sliwa is at +5000.
New poll shows Cuomo gaining momentum
Dig deeper:
According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, Cuomo has gained momentum since Adams dropped out, reshaping what once looked like a settled race. The poll shows Mamdani leading with 46% of likely voters. Cuomo follows at 33%, and Sliwa trails with 15% support.
In Quinnipiac’s previous survey on Sept. 10, when Adams was still in the race, Mamdani had 45%, Cuomo 23%, Sliwa 15%, and Adams 12%. The new numbers suggest Cuomo picked up most of Adams’ supporters but still trails Mamdani by double digits, underscoring a race that has shifted on the surface but not in structure.
“The numbers changed but the contours of the race haven’t,” said Mary Snow, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “Andrew Cuomo picked up the bulk of Adams’ supporters cutting into Zohran Mamdani’s lead, but Mamdani’s frontrunner status by double digits stays intact.”