Nationally, NOAA’s latest long-range outlook favors wetter conditions across much of the southern United States, from California and the Southwest through the southern Plains, Gulf Coast and Southeast, with wetter conditions eventually extending along much of the East Coast.
Warmer and generally drier conditions are favored across much of the northern tier, including the northern Plains, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and inland Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Tennessee valleys have no clear precipitation signal, while much of Alaska is expected to be warmer, with drier conditions developing across the mainland.
In New York City and the rest of the area, that means the region leans slightly drier than normal this fall overall, although short-term patterns may produce wetter periods. Warmer-than-normal conditions are favored this winter, while coastal areas increasingly lean wetter.