The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its outlook for the 2026-2027 winter season on Thursday. It’s predicting a warm and wet one for the tri-state area.
According to NOAA, the warmth won’t be confined to the Northeast this winter. It will stretch from most of the East Coast through the Midwest and all the way to the Pacific Northwest. The Southwest and Gulf Coast states will have equal chances for a warm or cold winter.
As for precipitation, NOAA expects wetter-than-normal conditions for California, the Southwest, Great Plains, Gulf Coast and most of the East Coast – including the tri-state.
Storm Team 4Storm Team 4
The main driver for the forecast is the expected continuation the strong El Niño weather pattern that has been in place since summer.
El Niño is, by definition, warmer-than-normal water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. It influences global atmospheric wind patterns and heavily influences winter weather in the United States.
Typically, El Niño forces the Pacific jet stream to track farther south than normal, through the southern tier of states. Winter storms track along this flow and can often bring flooding rains through this region.
Flooding is never good, but persistent wet weather does help alleviate devastating drought conditions in many of these regions.
For the New York City area, storms in an El Niño pattern often track offshore, which can lead to more nor’easters than normal.
Whether or not these coastal storms bring rain or snow depends on the temperature profile in any given situation, but nor’easters always bring pounding wind that can cause coastal flooding and beach erosion.