With the 2025 elections in the rearview mirror, attention is quickly turning to the 2026 midterm elections, where control of the U.S. House of Representatives will be determined. The last few years, New York has been a bastion for competitive races, and the state will likely be watched closely for those once again next year.
Cook Political Report, the independent nonpartisan index and analysis group, released their latest set of race ratings on Thursday, with six seats in New York it considers to be competitive next year.
For now, there is only one race the group considers to be a pure “tossup” and that’s the 4th Congressional District on Long Island. Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen, in her first term, was able to narrowly unseat Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito in 2024 by a mere 8,600 votes, or 2.3 points.
The district, made up of central and southern Nassau County, voted for Joe Biden for president by 15 points in 2020 and then for Kamala Harris by one point in 2024.
In their “lean Republican” column, Cook places New York’s 17th Congressional District. Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is running for a third term in one of only three districts represented by a Republican that Democrat Kamala Harris won in 2024, according to an analysis by Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Since he unseated Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in 2022, Lawler has proved to have staying power in the blue district, winning in 2024 by four points.
In their “lean Democratic” rating, Cook places two districts represented by Democrats with two very different geographic makeups.
The first is Rep. Tom Suozzi, representing the 3rd District, which runs from northern Nassau County into northeastern Queens. First elected in 2016, Suozzi didn’t seek reelection in 2022 to instead run unsuccessfully for governor. His absence helped George Santos win the 3rd District seat that year. After Santos was expelled from the House in December 2023, Suozzi won a special election for his old seat and won again in the general election last year.
The second is Rep. Josh Riley in the 19th Congressional District, which stretches from Rensselaer and Columbia counties in the east to Tompkins County, and includes the cities of Binghamton and Ithaca. Riley narrowly defeated freshman Rep. Marc Molinaro in 2024 in a rematch from 2022.
Lastly, Cook places two races in their “likely Democratic” column — the 18th and the 22nd. Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan has won three congressional contests in his Hudson Valley-based district since his special election victory in 2022. His first and second victories were close races but in 2024, he won reelection by double digits. The 18th District is made up of parts of Orange, Dutchess, and Ulster counties, and includes the cities of Poughkeepsie and Kingston.
Democratic Rep. John Mannion is running for a second term after he unseated freshman Republican Rep. Brandon Williams in 2024 in the Central New York seat that includes the city of Syracuse. Once one of the most competitive districts in the nation that usually fell the Republicans’ way, it was redrawn during Williams’ term and is now slightly more Democratic.
New York’s 26 congressional seats will all be on the ballot alongside the four statewide offices, including governor, next year.