WASHINGTON (TNND) — At least two major gambling websites have running bets if New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani will be deported by the Trump administration by the end of the year.
Mamdani, 33, was born in Uganda, and move to the United States when he was seven-years-old. He became a naturalized citizen in 2018 and therefore could not be legally deported. However. President Donald Trump has previously amplified doubts surrounding Mamdani’s legal status.
“A lot of people are saying he’s here illegally,” Trump said of Mamdani in July. “We’re going to look at everything. And ideally, he’s going to turn out to be much less than a communist, but right now, he’s a communist.”
While the odds placed on Polymarket and Kalshi deem it highly unlikely that Mamdani will face deportation, it’s still telling that people have decided to make bets on that possibility.
On Kalshi, the odds that Mamdani will de deported is at 3%, falling from a 8.5% chance on November 5 — the day after the election.
More than $10,000 have been been waged on this bet.
And on Polymarket, there is a 1% odd that Mamdani will be deported. Betters have waged $5,753 on this market.
Trump and Mamdani have a very contentious relationship with each other. Trump has long callled Mamdani a “communist” and threatened to pull federal funding if Mamdani wins the mayoral race.
“It is highly unlikely that I will be contributing Federal Funds, other than the very minimum as required,” Trump wrote on social media on the eve of the election.
But Mamdani has remained undettered by Trump’s threats, directly calling him out in election victory speech.
“Donald Trump, since I know you’re watching, I have four words for you: Turn the volume up,” Mamdani said. “If anyone can show a nation betrayed by Donald Trump how to defeat him, it is the city that gave rise to him.”