ALBANY — Meteorologists have good news for Thanksgiving travelers.
Early forecasting models show rain — not snow — will slicken roads during the busiest travel days next week. Intermittent showers are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with Thruway driving expected to be slick but not icy.
“Luckily, temperatures look mild enough that it’s plain rain,” National Weather Service meteorologist Christina Speciale said Thursday.
But while New Yorkers may avoid snow this year, they will have to contend with clogged roads and slower-than-usual travel times. According to AAA, nearly 82 million Americans are projected to travel during the upcoming holiday — a new record high. The majority of those travelers will be driving, with AAA analysts predicting that an additional 1.3 million more people will take to the roads compared to last year, in part due to uncertainty about flight cancellations following the recent government shutdown.
The heavier traffic, combined with rainy conditions, could lead to delays.
Light to moderate rainfall is expected to blanket the state, even in famously snowy areas like Buffalo and the Adirondack Mountains. Travelers can expect warmer temperatures in the mid-to-upper 50s in most areas leading up to the holiday. Conditions are predicted to become slightly colder and breezier by Thanksgiving Day.
The most severe showers are expected on Tuesday, meaning drivers who travel later in the week will avoid the wettest conditions.
After that, the forecast becomes slightly less predictable. Even the most sophisticated modeling can’t confidently predict weather patterns more than a week in advance, and meteorologists based in Albany don’t yet have a sense of what the post-holiday weekend will bring.
But they are tracking an incoming front for its potential impact on air travel. Satellite imagery showed a large area of high clouds moving across the region from the west early next week, with lower stratus clouds moving across the Southern Tier. It was still unclear whether the clouds would be deemed hazardous enough to prompt flight delays or cancellations.
Thanksgiving is considered the nation’s busiest holiday for travel, topping even Christmas and Memorial Day for the number of people who take to the roads and the skies, said AAA’s Vice President of Travel Stacey Barber.
“People are willing to brave the crowds and make last-minute adjustments to their plans to make lifelong memories,” Barber said.
In wet conditions, drivers should try to postpone travel until after 10 a.m. to avoid commuters, slow down and use caution, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The agency recommends that drivers give other cars extra space. Vehicles are harder to control on slick roads.
Speciale said the predicted showers may slightly dampen the holiday spirit.
“Last-minute shopping is not fun in the rain,” she said.