The U.S. housing market is expected to undergo a “great reset” next year, according to predictions from real estate brokerage Redfin, as significant improvements in affordability will push sales up all across the country.
It won’t be a quick fix: Redfin warns that it will be “a long, slow recovery” for the housing market, but a much-needed one after years of rising home prices, stubbornly high borrowing costs, and higher property taxes and homeowner insurance premiums.
It won’t be enough to make homebuying affordable in the short run for younger generations, either, the real estate brokerage said. But it will be enough to get the U.S. housing market out of its frozen state, leading to a slow but steady increase in sales.
Some markets, however, will be much “hotter” than others, Redfin said—including the New York City suburbs, the Midwest and the Great Lakes regions.
Which Areas Will Be Most Attractive to Buyers? Why?
Affordability and convenience will drive homebuying activity in the nation’s hottest markets next year, according to Redfin.
Areas around the Big Apple, which will have the newly elected Mayor Zohran Mamdani at its helm, will attract people who need to commute to their offices in New York City at lower costs than in the busy metropolis.
The Midwest and Great Lakes regions will be “hot” markets because they are relatively affordable compared to other parts of the country. Crucially, these areas represent “relatively safe havens,” Redfin said, against natural disasters like wildfires and floods, which have contributed to bringing up homeowner insurance premiums in much of the country over the past five years.
Small and mid-sized cities in the Midwest and the Great Lakes regions will be “luring recent graduates,” Redfin wrote, “with affordable rents and opportunities to build a stable career in a blue-collar field, as AI replaces some entry-level white-collar jobs.”
Which Areas Are Going to Cool Down?
Pandemic boomtowns like Austin, Texas, and Nashville, Tennessee, which became particularly overheated between 2020 and 2022, won’t be hot markets next year, according to Redfin.
In fact, some of the hottest markets during the pandemic—coastal Florida and Texas—will see homes for sale “languish,” according to Redfin, “due partly to natural disasters and surging insurance costs and partly to pandemic-era remote workers moving back to where their office is located.”
The two Southern states experienced a huge influx of newcomers during the pandemic, as the rise of remote work allowed many Americans to relocate across the country. A construction boom followed, as developers in the two states tried to keep up with surging demand.
But the end of the health emergency, return-to-office orders from employers and—most importantly—much higher housing costs put a damper on domestic migration to both states, and many newcomers have since moved back to their home states.
The result is that demand has dwindled in Florida and Texas over the past few months, while inventory has surged, putting downward pressure on prices. “People who need to sell” in these states, Redfin wrote in its report, “may be forced to take a loss.”