By the time the Buffalo Sabres had managed to string together five straight wins last season, the calendar had already turned to April, and the playoffs were a long shot.
With a 3-2 shootout win over the New York Islanders on Saturday, the Sabres got their first five-game winning streak of the season. And for a few reasons, this one feels a bit different than that late-season run in the spring.
For one, the NHL hasn’t hit the holiday break yet. While the Sabres dug themselves an early-season hole, they are now five points back of the second wild-card spot in a crowded Eastern Conference playoff picture.
The other obvious difference with this winning streak is that it’s coming in the middle of a week of major change in the front office. The Sabres got three of the wins in this streak when Kevyn Adams was still the team’s general manager, and they’ve extended the streak to five with two wins since Adams was fired and Jarmo Kekäläinen replaced him.
During Adams’ tenure, the Sabres had three winning streaks of five-plus games and nine winless streaks of at least five games.
A week-and-a-half ago, the Sabres had started their road trip with three straight losses and looked like they could be heading for another lengthy losing streak. They were playing sloppy hockey and spiraling, and then they managed to hold on to beat the Edmonton Oilers in overtime, which got the ball rolling. Despite the noise later in the week about Adams’ future, the Sabres finished their road trip with closely contested wins over the Vancouver Canucks and Seattle Kraken. They’ve since returned home with wins in the first two games of the Kekäläinen era.
It hasn’t always been pretty. The Sabres blew another lead against the Islanders and let another Eastern Conference playoff contender get a point. Yet, the team has shown a level-headed nature during some topsy-turvy games throughout this streak. They withstood late pushes from the Oilers and Canucks on the road, and they overcame a slow start against the Flyers.
Goalie Alex Lyon, who has been key to this five-game winning streak, boiled it down to “belief.” The Sabres have some belief in themselves and in each other, and that’s helping them pull out wins. It’s hard to ignore that some of that belief might be coming from the top.
1. During this five-game stretch, Lyon is 5-0 and has a .921 save percentage and a 2.30 goals against average. Those are No. 1 goalie numbers. Lyon’s challenge during his career has been sustaining it, but he’s put together a strong body of work this season. It wasn’t entirely clear why he lost the net after a strong start to the year, but he has clearly earned it back. He was outstanding against the Islanders and stepped up big time in overtime and the shootout. The Sabres don’t win this game — or have this winning streak — without him.
What’s interesting is this comes at a time when Kekäläinen is trying to figure out what to do about Buffalo’s three-goalie situation. Colten Ellis is currently on injured reserve, but eventually, the Sabres would like to get down to two goalies. The NHL holiday roster freeze is in effect until Dec. 28, so no trade can happen until then.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman has suggested that Lyon would be a wanted man on the trade market, particularly in Edmonton. The Sabres could probably get a second-round pick for him. However, if Kekäläinen is serious about making every effort to keep the Sabres’ playoff hopes alive, he can’t trade Lyon. Not only is he the team’s best goaltender this season, but he’s a valuable personality in the room.
2. A healthy Josh Norris is a game-changer for this Sabres team. He’s played eight games this season, has nine points and the Sabres have 61 percent of the expected goals when he’s on the ice at five-on-five. Norris has also been a huge boost to Buffalo’s power play. He has five power-play points in the seven games since he returned from his early-season injury. The goal Norris scored against the Flyers Thursday was a glimpse at the type of shooting talent he has, but he’s also shown off some play-making chops and a balanced two-way game.
Norris won the game in a shootout with a confident and decisive shot on Saturday. Buffalo’s lineup is much more balanced with Norris in it. Maybe Adams won that trade after all.
3. Rasmus Dahlin is still the Sabres’ best player, and this goal should be a reminder of that.
Dahlin has been much more himself after a slow start to the season since returning from a personal leave earlier this season. That’s a great sign.
4. Michael Kesselring is still getting his legs under him after another lengthy absence. He had a knee injury earlier in the year and then recently missed time with an ankle injury. He mentioned earlier this week that he wasn’t able to find a rhythm when returning from his first injury. His goal was to simplify his game and bring some physicality while his skating gets back to where he wants it to be.
Kesselring took a costly slashing penalty late in the third period Saturday. The Sabres were protecting a 2-1 lead, and that penalty gave the Islanders a six-on-four advantage with their goalie pulled. They took advantage and earned a crucial point in the standings for forcing overtime. Those late-game situations are when the Sabres want to be able to lean on Kesselring. He was also supposed to help stabilize Owen Power, who has continued to look shaky defensively and was on the ice for two Islanders’ goals Saturday. In the last two games, the Sabres have been out-chanced 18-3 in Power and Kesselring’s five-on-five minutes.
Meanwhile, Buffalo’s depth at right defense is getting tested again. Conor Timmins landed on injured reserve with a broken leg this week and is going to miss six to eight weeks. Zach Metsa played a season-high 14:05 Saturday in Timmins’ absence.
5. Tage Thompson has his second six-game goal streak of the season. His defensive game hasn’t been perfect during this stretch, but the Sabres need Thompson to be a goal scorer, and he’s carrying the load in that regard. What’s noteworthy about this stretch is that he’s doing it while his linemates have changed. Josh Doan, though, has been a constant. He’s looking like a solid fit next to Thompson on Buffalo’s top line. On Saturday, he made a perfect pass on the rush to set up Thompson’s goal. Doan now has 24 points in 34 games this season.
The Sabres need to find a solution at left wing on that top line, though. Peyton Krebs has had two tough defensive moments in as many games that have led to goals against. His failure to break the puck out Saturday gave the Islanders the chance to get going with their first goal. Krebs’ hard-working style is useful on the fourth line, but he’s out of his depth up top.
6. Noah Ostlund has again been excellent since getting called back up. He’s been playing the wing, which is helping because he was struggling with faceoffs while playing center. His consistent passing and vision on the rush are helping set up plays. Ostlund and Isak Rosen are back on the roster now, and they help make this lineup more dangerous offensively.