Will Albany have a white Christmas this year?

Twinkling lights, snow-covered ground and the warmth of home — for many, this is what Christmas is supposed to look like.

But as Christmas Day approaches, reality often intrudes on that picture. Will there be snow on the ground this year? How often has that actually happened in Albany?

According to the Northeast Regional Climate Center forecast, the probability of having more than 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day is only about 23% in Albany, 67% in Buffalo, 63% in Syracuse, and just 4% in Central Park in New York City.

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At the Albany International Airport, there is a 40% chance of precipitation on Christmas Day, with mostly cloudy skies and a high of 39 degrees, according to the National Weather Service forecast. Instead of snow, there’s a 60% chance of rain that night. 

“Based on the current forecast, it’s not looking great that an inch of snow will be on the ground (on Christmas) in Albany,” said Jessica Spaccio, a climatologist at Northeast Regional Climate Center. 

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While there is a chance of rain and snow, the daytime temperature is forecast to be above freezing, or 32 degrees, so “the snow is going to be kind of like a wet slushy mix out there,” Spaccio said. 

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Parts of western New York may see warmer-than-normal temperatures from Dec. 24 to 28 compared with the 1991 to 2020 normals, while much of the rest of the state is expected to be near normal.

At the Albany International Airport, the normal high on Christmas Day is 36 degrees, with a normal low of 20 degrees.

Use the search tool below to view the temperature outlook and compare it with the normals for your location.

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Historically, western New York has been more likely to experience a white Christmas than the eastern parts of the state from 2009 to 2024. The probability was highest in areas near Erie County, at about 38%, compared with about 6% in the Capital Region.

Looking back over the past 80 years of Christmas Days in Albany, white Christmases were more common in earlier decades than in recent years. The snowiest Christmas on record was in 1996, when 19 inches were measured, followed by 18 inches in 1970.

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Over the past 10 years, only four Christmases have qualified as a white Christmases there, with the heaviest snowfall occurring in 2017, when 5 inches were recorded.

From the 1960s through the late 1970s, the probability of a white Christmas in Albany was often between about 60% and 80%. That dropped sharply starting in the 1980s, falling to around 20% through much of the 1990s and 2000s. In recent years, it has increased slightly to about 30%.

“The lower probability in the more recent decades is not surprising, as we’ve seen temperatures warming,” Spaccio said. 

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