Upside or baseline? Max potential or comfortable floor? A veteran presence or the thought of what could be?
That’s the decision the New York Jets are going to have to make when handling the 2026 NFL draft on April 23, 2026.
New York desperately needs a quarterback. As things stand, two signal-callers are expected to be sure-fire top picks in the upcoming selection process: Oregon’s Dante Moore and Indiana’s Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza.
There are factors outside of the Jets’ control that complicate this process. New York needs the Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns to win a game (or two)—and/or have things break right—if they are to be in a comfortable spot to land Mendoza or Moore.
As things stand, the Jets currently have the fourth overall selection. If they want to control the board, they would need to trade up to the first overall spot.
Before that happens, though, the Jets need to determine which quarterback they would rather have. When it comes to the differences between Mendoza and Moore, Gang Green will find itself in familiar territory.
Familiar territory for Jets’ QB room
New York has been here before.
In 2009, the Jets traded up for USC quarterback Mark Sanchez, despite the prospect having made just 16 college starts. In 2018, New York selected Sam Darnold despite just two seasons of experience in the college game.
In 2021, the Jets went all-in on upside with the second overall pick despite mediocre tape with their decision. That quarterback was Zach Wilson, and the decision blew up in the team’s face.
Gang Green’s decision comes down to experience and upside. Mendoza is a quarterback who showcases impressive anticipation in over 30 college starts, which may result in a lower ceiling yet a higher floor than Moore.
For the Oregon product, the sky is the limit, but his lack of starts can’t be overlooked. Moore has been a starter in the college game for just 15 contests. That isn’t enough of a sample size to determine how good a player could be at the NFL level.
His metrics, however, suggest that he could grow to be even better than Mendoza with patience, proper coaching, and a strong supporting cast.
Whereas Moore’s ceiling may be higher than Mendoza’s, his floor is also a lot lower. The Indiana product has led the Hoosiers and California for 30 games in his college career. There’s plenty of tape on him, and he’s played in NFL-ready offenses.
Should the Jets want to select a quarterback who can play right away, Mendoza would be the easy selection.
That highlights the Jets’ difficult choice, though. The team has a history of looking for the player with the most upside in the hopes of striking gold in the draft. They tend to avoid the safe option, not wanting to pigeonhole the franchise’s future to a limited player.
It’s where the team will find themselves in the 2026 draft with Mendoza and Moore.
Luckily for the team, there is a correct choice for this specific situation.
The appropriate choice
It’s important to remember that if the Jets prefer Mendoza over Moore—or vice versa—they’ll still need to trade a package worthy of making sure they get at least one of the two top rookies in the 2026 group.
When it comes to judging college quarterbacks, it’s important to remember a key fact: Nobody knows anything.
Scouts and front office executives are unsure whether Mendoza or Moore will be the better quarterback, or if either player can turn around a team as plagued by bad luck as the Jets currently are.
The draft is a faith-based process that incorporates statistical and analytical analysis to predict potential outcomes.
In this specific quarterback debate, the analysis leans towards Mendoza. Fifteen college starts are not enough of a barometer for Moore to be judged fairly. The modern game has also foregone patience for young players. If the Oregon product doesn’t produce right away, the Jets could very well move on from him the following year.
Mendoza, meanwhile, offers a safe floor and high ceiling. It’s not easy to lead a program like Indiana to the top overall seed in the College Football Playoff. While Curt Cignetti will get a lot of the credit for that, the Hoosiers would be nowhere without their star quarterback.
Instead of looking for the next Wilson, Darnold, or Sanchez—worrying about athletic traits that jump off the screen—the Jets should focus more on the experience of playing the quarterback position.
That shift could finally turn the tide of their struggles.