STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — The forecast has shifted away from a major coastal storm, with a cold front now the primary weather driver for snow, according to AccuWeather.
“So earlier in the week, modeling looked like there was a potential for there being a coastal storm that could impact New York City,” AccuWeather meteorologist Alexander Duffus said. “Now that doesn’t look to be the case.”
Instead, the upcoming snow will be deposited by a cold front moving into the Northeast from the Great Lakes region, Duffus said.
Wednesday night is expected to be cloudy with occasional rain and drizzle, with a low around 34 degrees.
According to Duffus, Thursday’s weather will feature a rain-snow mix in the morning, with temperatures reaching a high of 35 degrees before dropping as conditions become breezy and colder.
While there may be some mixed precipitation, the current expectation is for very minor accumulation, if any. Temperatures will drop below freezing Thursday evening, when the area might see a trace amount or light coating of snow.
A drastic temperature drop is expected Thursday night, with lows plummeting into the upper teens, making it one of the coldest nights of the season.
Sustained winds from the west-northwest are forecast to be between 12 and 25 miles per hour with gusts of 30 or 35 miles per hour at times, creating a strong wind chill.
Thursday night and early Friday morning present the potential for black ice. While windy conditions will help dry most surfaces, any areas with standing water—such as from earlier rain or melted snow on side streets and in poorly drained spots—could freeze over as temperatures drop sharply.
“On Saturday, that’s just going to be another quick moving system that’s coming across the Northeast,” Duffus said. “It’s not necessarily like a coastal storm, per se.”
This system could bring a rain or snow shower to the area, likely later in the afternoon, according to AccuWeather.
Unlike the frigid conditions on Thursday, Saturday will be warmer with a high of 43 degrees. The type of precipitation will depend on the exact temperatures at the time the system moves through.
The weather for the remainder of the long holiday weekend appears to be calm and dry with no precipitation expected on Sunday or Monday.
The forecast for Martin Luther King Day on Monday calls for a mixture of clouds and sunshine, with a high temperature of 36 degrees.
The meteorologist clarified that the weather events impacting the region are not classified as major coastal storms or nor’easters.