Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, a Republican running for governor in New York, performed better than in previous polls against Governor Kathy Hochul in one of the first surveys following Republican Representative Elise Stefanik’s suspension of her campaign and reshaping the GOP field.
Why It Matters
President Donald Trump has endorsed Blakeman in the Empire State contest following Stefanik’s suspension of her campaign in December. Republicans have not held the governorship since George Pataki left office on December 31, 2006.
Blakeman serves as executive of Nassau County on Long Island and was sworn into his second term on Monday. He has cultivated a political profile closely aligned with Trump’s agenda.
What To Know
A John Zogby Strategies poll of 844 likely New York voters found Hochul holding a double-digit lead over Blakeman, 53 percent to 39 percent, a bit smaller than a previous Siena College poll at the end of last year when Stefanik was still competing in the race.
With the inclusion of independent candidate Larry Sharpe in the poll, Hochul’s share falls to 49 percent, as does Blakeman’s, to 34 percent, with Sharpe carrying 8 percent. The survey also put Hochul’s approval rating at 55 percent, with 37 percent of New Yorkers disapproving.
Amid Democratic candidates Hochul and Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado, Hochul clearly dominates the landscape, 64 percent to 12 percent, per the poll. Blakeman holds 34 percent of the vote in the Republican battle, with 45 percent undecided and 21 percent saying they will select another candidate.
The poll was conducted between January 6 and January 8. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
A December Siena College poll conducted before Stefanik dropped out of the race, found Hochul ahead of Blakeman, 50 percent to 25 percent. Twenty-one percent of voters were undecided in that December poll of 801 registered voters.
The Siena College poll found Hochul’s favorability rating to be much narrower, 43 percent to 41 percent, with her job approval rating 52 percent to 39 percent. That same poll found Blakeman’s favorability rating to be 13 percent to 17 percent, with 70 percent holding either no opinion or not knowing.
The poll, conducted between December 8 and December 12, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
The polling firm’s Managing Director Jeremy Zogby said in the poll release: “The results tell us that while New Yorkers today are comfortable with Kathy Hochul steering the ship amid a new playing field that includes Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman and independent candidate Larry Sharpe, the all-important independent vote, plus voters Upstate and in the suburbs of New York City, do not firmly stand with the Governor. And in particular, a critical mass of independent voters turning against Hochul could make this race very interesting.”
Larry Sharpe said in an X post on January 12: “New Poll Has Larry Sharpe at 8%! The path to victory runs through independent candidates in New York State.”
Governor Kathy Hochul said in an X post on Tuesday: “I’m bringing universal child care to New York. Bruce Blakeman sent child care in his own county into a “death spiral.” Families shouldn’t suffer because of his incompetence. We need to keep lowering costs and standing up for our kids.”
Bruce Blakeman said in an X post on January 12: “Affordability doesn’t come from more government handouts… it comes from real prosperity. As Governor, I’ll grow the economy so New Yorkers can actually get ahead instead of just getting by.”
President Donald Trump via Truth Social in December, in part: “Bruce Blakeman is a FANTASTIC guy, will win the big November Election and, without hesitation, has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Governor of the ONCE GREAT STATE OF NEW YORK (IT CAN BE GREAT AGAIN!). BRUCE BLAKEMAN WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”
What Happens Next
The primaries will take place in June, which will solidify the candidates. The general gubernatorial election will be held on November 3, 2026.