New York Gov. Kathy Hochul retains just a five percentage-point lead against potential 2026 Republican challenger Elise Stefanik \u2014 and loses that advantage when likely voters first hear about both candidates\u2019 records, according to a new internal poll.<\/p>\n
Stefanik trails behind Hochul, 48% to 43%, on an initial ballot but narrowly beats the incumbent Democrat<\/a>, 46.4% to 45.9%, when voters leaning toward voting in the 2026 race hear about the governor endorsing New York City mayoral front-runner and socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani<\/a>, the poll found, among other issues.<\/p>\n If Mamdani wins Gracie Mansion, up to 47% of independent voters also said they\u2019d be less likely to vote for Hochul or other Democrats up and down the ballot in the midterms.<\/p>\n Rep. Elise Stefanik testifies before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Jan. 21, 2025. Getty Images<\/p>\n The survey, paid for by Stefanik\u2019s leadership fundraising committee E-PAC, showed likely gubernatorial voters also downgraded Hochul for her record on supporting bail reform in New York and other cost-of-living concerns.<\/p>\n Hochul\u2019s job performance rating is also underwater, 56% to 39%, and at least half of the likely voters polled strongly disapprove of the Democrat.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, just 34% of the likely voters said as of this month they were ready to re-elect Hochul, while 59% said it was time for someone new.<\/p>\n Pollster Landon Wall, of the firm Grayhouse, said his survey of 1,250 likely 2026 midterm voters reveals Hochul is in a \u201cdeeply vulnerable position.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cKathy Hochul\u2019s coalition is historically fragile: soft support from her own voters, significant growing appetite for change, and her endorsement of politically toxic Zohran Mamdani collapses support among Independents,\u201d Wall wrote in a memo outlining the poll\u2019s findings.\u00a0<\/p>\n Gov. Kathy Hochul holds a press conference at the tip of Battery Park to call for the end of the federal government shutdown on Oct. 1, 2025. REUTERS<\/p>\n Rep. Elise Stefanik holds a candle during a vigil for conservative activist Charlie Kirk in Statuary Hall at the Capitol on Sept. 15, 2025. REUTERS<\/p>\n \u201cThe data overwhelmingly points to unprecedented vulnerability for an incumbent New York Democrat Governor, and a race that Republicans can win,\u201d he added.\u00a0<\/p>\n In a Democratic primary against Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado \u2014 who announced in June he would challenge his estranged boss<\/a> for the governorship \u2014 Hochul received only 43% support from New Yorkers, with 14% backing\u00a0Delgado, 15% going for someone else and 28% undecided.<\/p>\n \u201cA sitting Governor unable to secure majority support from her own party indicates substantial vulnerability,\u201d Wall said, describing Hochul as \u201cone of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n