But, if you\u2019ve lived through enough cycles in New York, you know better. Velocity always comes first. Pricing follows later.<\/p>\n
In the fourth quarter, New York City recorded 286 multifamily transactions encompassing more than 6,600 units \u2014 a 15 percent increase quarter-over-quarter and nearly 35 percent year-over-year in unit count. That kind of activity doesn\u2019t happen in a market that\u2019s frozen. It happens when buyers and sellers finally start agreeing on reality.<\/p>\n
![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Lev-Mavashev-headshot-extended.jpg\" "\\"Listen")
Lev Mavashev. PHOTO: Courtesy Alpha Realty<\/p>\n
What we\u2019re seeing right now isn\u2019t weakness. It\u2019s repricing.<\/p>\n
Total dollar volume fell roughly 31 percent from the third quarter, but that decline had very little to do with demand and everything to do with composition. The prior quarter was inflated by a handful of oversized, institutional-grade trades. Strip those out, and the fourth quarter tells a far more important story: Deals are getting done again, just at today\u2019s check sizes and today\u2019s underwriting.<\/p>\n
This is exactly how recoveries start.<\/p>\n
After two years of capital market whiplash \u2014 rising rates, regulatory uncertainty, lender pullback \u2014 participants didn\u2019t need clarity on where prices would be in 2028. They needed confidence that the bid\/ask spread could finally close. The fourth quarter showed that it can.<\/p>\n
The strongest signal came from large-scale assets. Properties that we track with 20 or more units saw transaction counts jump more than 24 percent quarter-over-quarter and over 66 percent year-over-year. That doesn\u2019t happen unless institutional and quasi-institutional capital is comfortable underwriting New York risk again. They may not be paying 2021 pricing, but they\u2019re very much back in the game.<\/p>\n
At the same time, smaller and mid-market transactions continued to provide liquidity across the boroughs. Manhattan posted more deals but far fewer mega-trades, driving dollar volume down sharply while activity ticked up. Brooklyn rebounded meaningfully, with dollar volume surging over 34 percent quarter-over-quarter, led by renewed interest in larger properties. Queens and the Bronx, meanwhile, continued to attract capital priced out of Manhattan and core Brooklyn, with large-unit deals dominating activity.<\/p>\n
The takeaway is simple: Capital isn\u2019t sitting on the sidelines anymore. It\u2019s just moving with discipline. That distinction matters heading into 2026.<\/p>\n
Historically, New York multifamily cycles follow a familiar pattern. First, transaction velocity increases as buyers recalibrate expectations. Then pricing stabilizes as comps form. Finally, once confidence returns to the debt markets, cap rates compress \u2014 often faster than people expect.<\/p>\n
Right now, we\u2019re firmly in Phase 1.<\/p>\n
The ingredients for Phase 2 are already lining up. Supply remains constrained, with new construction starts at multi-decade lows. Regulatory uncertainty has largely shifted from \u201cunknown\u201d to \u201cknown,\u201d allowing investors to underwrite risk instead of guessing at it. Rental fundamentals across Manhattan, Brooklyn and northwest Queens remain resilient, with tight vacancy and steady rent growth supporting cash-flow assumptions.<\/p>\n
And, importantly, global capital is re-risking New York.<\/p>\n
We\u2019re seeing foreign and all-cash buyers re-emerge not just in Manhattan, but across the boroughs, targeting well-located free-market and mixed assets. These buyers don\u2019t need rates to drop another 100 basis points to act. They\u2019re underwriting long-term fundamentals \u2014 and they view today\u2019s basis as compelling relative to replacement cost and global alternatives.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s why the fourth quarter\u2019s surge in unit volume matters more than the headline decline in dollar volume. Deals getting done at scale create price discovery. Price discovery creates confidence. Confidence brings competition.<\/p>\n
By the time pricing metrics start flashing green, the window will already be narrowing. Looking ahead to 2026, the opportunity set will reward early movers \u2014 both buyers and sellers \u2014 who understand where we are in the cycle. Buyers who lock in basis before cap rate compression shows up in the comps will look prescient in hindsight. Sellers who prepare assets now, price to today\u2019s market, and bring clarity to their story will benefit from a deeper buyer pool than we\u2019ve seen in years.<\/p>\n
The mistake would be waiting for perfect conditions. New York never gives you a bell at the bottom or the top. It gives you signals. The fourth quarter of 2025 sent a clear one: The market is moving again. Velocity is back. Pricing will follow.<\/p>\n
What matters: Deal activity is the leading indicator, not pricing. The last three months of last year confirmed that New York City multifamily has entered the early innings of its next cycle \u2014 and 2026 will favor those who act before the crowd does.<\/p>\n