Mayor Zohran Mamdani has painted himself as the unfortunate victim of a historic budget crisis, but he really should be counting his lucky stars.<\/p>\n
New York City has a big spending problem, but not a revenue problem.<\/p>\n
Yet that could change soon \u2014 warning signs are already flashing.<\/p>\n
Mamdani isn\u2019t confronting an external economic shock like a recession, 9\/11, the financial crisis or COVID-19.<\/p>\n
Wall Street is doing fine; the taxes on its stellar bonuses<\/a> made $5 billion<\/a> of the city\u2019s budget gap disappear overnight.<\/p>\n As much as the mayor would hate to admit it, he needs Wall Street more than it needs him.<\/p>\n According to state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, the securities industry contributes 42.3% of the city\u2019s personal-income tax and 8.4% of its total tax revenue.<\/p>\n While small and medium businesses keep most New Yorkers employed, big business pays the city\u2019s bills.<\/p>\n Those with 500 or more employees constitute only 0.3% of all firms but employ over a third of New Yorkers and pay about 41% of total wages, per the city\u2019s Independent Budget Office.<\/p>\n Likewise, the top 1% of corporate filers accounted for 93% of the city\u2019s total Business Corporation Tax liability in 2021, with the finance sector alone generating 54% of those collections.<\/p>\n In effect, finance is carrying water for a broader city economy that has flatlined in recent years.<\/p>\n As of last December, the unemployment rate in NYC was 5.6%, vs. the nation\u2019s 4.4%.<\/p>\n Yet a close look under the hood reveals a sputtering economic engine.<\/p>\n Government-subsidized employment is growing, and private-sector jobs are shrinking.<\/p>\n The health-care and social-assistance sector \u2014 mostly low-paid personal-care and home health aides funded by exploding Medicaid spending<\/a> \u2014 is by far the fastest growing in the local labor market.<\/p>\n From January 2020 to June 2025, these jobs rose 29%, reports the Citizens Budget Commission.<\/p>\n The sector now employs nearly a million people, with an average wage of about $60,000.<\/p>\n And not all jobs contribute to the tax base equally.<\/p>\n In 2021, the bottom 50% of filers contributed only about 4% of the city\u2019s personal-income tax, while the top 1% paid 43%.<\/p>\n City Comptroller Mark Levine points out that, excluding gains in health care and social assistance, the city lost 38,000 private-sector jobs in 2025.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\tGet opinions and commentary from our columnists\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tSubscribe to our daily Post Opinion newsletter!\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t\tThanks for signing up!\n\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n Higher-paid jobs are being replaced by lower-paid ones, eroding the tax base.<\/p>\n Plus, based on the latest Census Bureau estimates, New York state has been leading the nation in net population loss since 2020, shedding 201,269 residents.<\/p>\n Texas and Florida have seen the largest gains, adding a combined 4.5 million newcomers.<\/p>\n Texas now has more financial-services employees<\/a> than New York.<\/p>\n Pair that with the prospect of Mamdani\u2019s 9.5% property-tax hike, and more property owners and market-rate tenants could start searching home listings in Dallas, Miami or even north Jersey, accelerating the mayor\u2019s budget woes.<\/p>\n Now imagine if a recession hits; he\u2019d face a truly serious fiscal crisis.<\/p>\n Last year, the city comptroller\u2019s office modeled the effects of a potential recession, estimating two-year tax-revenue losses between $4.3 billion and $10 billion and employment declines ranging from 71,200 to 150,000, depending on the severity of the downturn.<\/p>\n What\u2019s Mamdani going to do in that situation \u2014 raise property taxes or demand help from Albany again?<\/p>\n Meanwhile, pending labor negotiations will soon have public-sector unions knocking on his door with their hands out, regardless of the state of the economy.<\/p>\n Finally, the booming stock market has kept the city\u2019s five pension funds afloat. But when the market falls, taxpayers will be on the hook to top up<\/a> the shortfall if returns dip below the rate needed to keep pensions adequately funded.<\/p>\n For example, as markets cratered in 2022, the comptroller\u2019s office anticipated that city contributions to pensions would need to rise by $5.9 billion over the following three years.<\/p>\n Given these hazards, how can the mayor hope to make good on his multibillion-dollar campaign promises for free buses, universal child care, hundreds of thousands of new affordable-housing units and more?<\/p>\n