{"id":164208,"date":"2026-03-15T15:25:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-15T15:25:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/164208\/"},"modified":"2026-03-15T15:25:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-15T15:25:08","slug":"data-confirms-no-mamdani-effect-on-nyc-luxury-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/164208\/","title":{"rendered":"Data Confirms: No \u201cMamdani effect\u201d on NYC Luxury Market"},"content":{"rendered":"

When New York\u2019s luxury market continued to swell in the wake of Zohran Mamdani\u2019s election in November, there were questions floating around about what was driving all those expensive deals.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Was it the wealthy doubling down on the financial and nightlife capital of the country? Or was it anxiety-ridden rich folks selling their homes at a discount to flee the city?\u00a0<\/p>\n

Based on data from real estate analytics firm UrbanDigs, it appears to be a surge of buyers casting bids of confidence in the market.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

In the luxury market, defined as homes asking at least $4 million, contracts rose over 24 percent in the 60 days after Mamdani\u2019s election compared to the 60 days before. The median listing discount fell to 6 percent from 6.5 percent in that same period.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cHow much power buyers have, it\u2019s best measured in discount,\u201d said UrbanDigs co-founder John Walkup. If sellers are rushing to get out of Dodge or desperate for a deal, you would expect to see drastic price cuts to homes on the market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWe just didn\u2019t see it,\u201d Walkup said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Instead, what he witnessed was typical seasonality, where listings and contract activity all pick up in tandem with an increased buyer pool. Walkup said any effect from the mayoral election would have shown supply remaining elevated after the November election as sellers have a harder time moving their homes. But supply fell by over 3 percent in the 60 days after the election.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Compass\u2019 Vickey Barron said that the luxury market\u2019s resilience is a testament to the intangible qualities of owning property in the city. \u201cThey want an address in New York City, and if they didn\u2019t want it, they wouldn\u2019t buy it, because they have many options,\u201d Barron said of luxury buyers.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A recent slew of record-setting deals has buttressed sellers from buyers trying to negotiate their way into a deal through current events.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In December, an unknown buyer signed a $129 million contract for a set of condos at 80 Clarkson Street<\/a>, a new development project from Atlas Capital Group and Zeckendorf Development, which would set a record for the most expensive sale downtown. Nahla Capital and Legion Investment Group\u2019s new development at 1122 Madison Avenue found a buyer for its penthouse, asking $90 million<\/a>. \u201cIt only takes a few people to step in and sign contracts at these high numbers\u201d for buyers to lose some of their perceived leverage, said Barron.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Elections in and of themselves have rarely had a tangible impact on the market, past research has shown. But policy changes, particularly those involving taxes, are a different story.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Last month, Mamdani put forward the possibility of a 9.5 percent blanket property tax increase<\/a> or a tax hike on the wealthy to help cover some of the city\u2019s multibillion-dollar budget deficit. Even if those politically precarious proposals fall through \u2014 the mayor\u2019s office has already backtracked on the size of the budget deficit \u2014 Mamdani has also been a staunch advocate of reforming the city\u2019s property tax code in an effort to shift tax burdens from multifamily properties to single-family homes and luxury condos and co-ops.<\/p>\n

\u201cA nine-and-a-half percent increase is massive,\u201d said Douglas Elliman\u2019s Frances Katzen of the latest tax proposal. \u201cIf you\u2019re earning at a certain level, that\u2019s a big hit. You\u2019re going to have an exodus.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Walkup pointed to the mansion and transfer taxes<\/a> in the city that went into effect on July 1, 2019. \u201cAn amazing amount of transactions pulled forward to take advantage of that tax break,\u201d he said. Similarly, a $10,000 cap on the federal deduction for state and local taxes was blamed for slow sales<\/a> in luxury markets like the Hamptons in 2019.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cOnce you have a real policy with a real timeline, and you can actually calculate hard and fast on the paper what it means, people will change their behavior,\u201d Walkup said. \u201cBut until then, it\u2019s just sort of, it\u2019s been business as usual in the real estate market.\u201d<\/p>\n

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