{"id":19872,"date":"2025-10-28T14:35:08","date_gmt":"2025-10-28T14:35:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/19872\/"},"modified":"2025-10-28T14:35:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-28T14:35:08","slug":"mamdanis-chances-of-winning-nyc-mayoral-race-1-week-from-election-polls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/19872\/","title":{"rendered":"Mamdani\u2019s Chances of Winning NYC Mayoral Race 1 Week From Election: Polls"},"content":{"rendered":"

New York City<\/a> voters will pick their next mayor<\/a> next Tuesday in a tightly contested race between Democratic state legislator Zohran Mamdani<\/a>, former Governor Andrew Cuomo<\/a>, who is running as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa.<\/p>\n

Newsweek reached out to each of their campaigns for comment via email.<\/p>\n

Why It Matters<\/p>\n

Whoever prevails in next Tuesday\u2019s race will lead the nation\u2019s largest city. Democrats are generally favored in New York<\/a> City, a liberal bastion, but Cuomo has sought to chip away at Mamdani\u2019s support among more moderate members of the party. The next mayor will have influence on key issues the city faces, including housing<\/a>, affordability and public safety.<\/p>\n

The race has exposed ideological divides among Democrats<\/a>. Mamdani, a Democratic socialist, has won support from his party\u2019s progressive wing. But more centrist Democrats have been reluctant to throw their weight behind his candidacy. The race is a key test for the direction of the party following former Vice President Kamala Harris\u2019 loss to President Donald Trump last November.<\/p>\n

\"\"What To Know<\/p>\n

Mamdani has become a national figure following his primary victory against Cuomo<\/a>. He has gained support from prominent progressives like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez<\/a>, a New York Democrat, and Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent. But he has drawn scrutiny from some moderate voters over his left-leaning policies, support for socialism and stance on Israel<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Cuomo has sought to use that scrutiny to create a coalition of centrist Democrats and Republicans but has faced criticism for past allegations of sexual harassment<\/a>, as well as recent remarks on a New York City radio show in which he said, \u201cGod forbid, another 9\/11. Can you imagine Mamdani in the seat?\u201d<\/p>\n

Polling has shown Mamdani with an advantage over his rivals in the final stretch of the campaign, though most polls<\/a> show him with a plurality, rather a majority, of support in the city.<\/p>\n

A Suffolk University poll of 500 likely voters from October 23-26 shows Mamdani with a 10-point lead over Cuomo. It found that Mamdani held support from 44 percent of respondents, while 34 percent said they intended to vote for Cuomo. Eleven percent said they would cast their ballots for Sliwa. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.<\/p>\n

In a polling memo, Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos wrote that Sliwa\u2019s voters \u201ccould have an outsized impact on the outcome\u201d on the race, as more of his voters preferred Cuomo to Mamdani.<\/p>\n

The poll found that Cuomo had narrowed the race since September, when Mamdani led by 20 points, because of growing support among Hispanic voters and independent voters.<\/p>\n

A recent poll from Victory Insights gave Mamdani a larger lead over Cuomo. It showed that 47 percent planned to vote for the Democratic candidate, while 29 percent said they would support the former governor. Sixteen percent said they would vote for Sliwa. It surveyed 500 likely voters from October 22-23.<\/p>\n

An AARP poll, conducted by Gotham Polling & Analytics, showed 43 percent support for Mamdani to 29 for Cuomo and 19 percent for Sliwa. It surveyed 1,040 likely voters from October 14-15 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.<\/p>\n

A Fox News poll showed Mamdani with a majority of support among likely voters, 52 percent of whom said they would vote for him. Twenty-eight percent said they\u2019d back Cuomo and 14 percent for Sliwa. An additional 2 percent said they would support incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who has since ended his campaign.<\/p>\n

It surveyed 793 likely voters from October 10-14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.<\/p>\n

A Quinnipiac University poll yielded similar results. Forty-six percent of respondents said they would back Mamdani, 33 percent for Cuomo and 15 percent for Sliwa. It polled 1,015 likely voters from October 3-7 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.<\/p>\n

What People Are Saying<\/p>\n

Ben Galbraith of Victory Insights, in a polling memo: \u201cIt would come as a major surprise if anyone other than Mamdani is elected Mayor of New York City. However, many voters are extremely concerned about that outcome. 39% of voters believe Mamdani is a threat to the future of the city. Cuomo and Sliwa voters are widely considering fleeing the city if he\u2019s elected. New York City seems to be nearing an inflection point, one that could reshape the city for years to come.\u201d<\/p>\n

New York Governor Kathy Hochul, on X on Monday: \u201cWe need a fighter in City Hall who will stand up for New York families and fight back against Trump and D.C. Republicans. That\u2019s @ZohranKMamdani.\u201d<\/p>\n

Andrew Cuomo, on X on Sunday: \u201cNew Yorkers, WE WILL WIN this election. Not just for ourselves, not just for our families, but for our city, our state, and our country.\u201d<\/p>\n

Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Mary Snow, in a polling memo: “The numbers changed but the contours of the race haven’t. Andrew Cuomo picked up the bulk of Adams’ supporters cutting into Zohran Mamdani’s lead, but Mamdani’s frontrunner status by double digits stays intact.\u201d<\/p>\n

What Happens Next<\/p>\n

Early voting is underway in New York City<\/a> and will continue through Sunday, November 2. Election Day is Tuesday, November 4.<\/p>\n

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