President Trump is trying to cast his Iran war as all but over, a done-and-dusted success.<\/p>\n
But after years of trying to impose his own reality on the world, he has now run into a crisis that is not bending to his narrative.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a new regime,\u201d Mr. Trump said in a Fox Business interview that aired on Wednesday, referring to Iran\u2019s new leaders. \u201cWe find them pretty reasonable to be honest with you, by comparison pretty reasonable.\u201d<\/p>\n
It was the latest instance of Mr. Trump\u2019s trying to spin a \u201cregime change\u201d accomplishment in Iran, even though analysts believe the war may have only increased the internal sway of Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps<\/a>, the hard-line military force that has long been a major player in Iran\u2019s politics and economy. The new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has not been seen in public since he replaced his father, who was killed at the start of the war, but his elevation as head of state has been another symbol of continuity.<\/p>\n \u201cMost generously you could say there is a leadership change,\u201d said Behnam Ben Taleblu, the senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank with a hawkish stance on Iran. \u201cIt is incorrect for the proponents of the conflict to frame this as a change for the better.\u201d<\/p>\n Indeed, trade through the Strait of Hormuz remains far from normal and Iran\u2019s government is not bending to Mr. Trump\u2019s demands on its nuclear program.<\/p>\n But in Mr. Trump\u2019s telling, U.S. victory in Iran is already clear. In the Fox Business interview, reprising his frequent comments of the last two weeks, Mr. Trump asserted that Iran\u2019s navy, air force and antiaircraft equipment had all been wiped out, along with many top officials. If Iran did not rule out nuclear weapons, Mr. Trump said, \u201cwe will be living with them for a little while, but I don\u2019t know how much longer they can survive.\u201d<\/p>\n In fact, analysts say, the 40 days of U.S.-Israeli bombardment that ended with last week\u2019s cease-fire appear to have increased the power of the military and hard-liners in the Iranian system. Despite the widespread destruction and the killings of officials by the U.S. and Israeli militaries, the Iranian regime is acting emboldened, having demonstrated that it can wreak havoc in global trade and send U.S. gas prices soaring.<\/p>\n The result is that a president who has long relied on threats and bluster as essential foreign-policy tools seems to be groping for the leverage to bring Iran\u2019s regime to heel. Analysts say that the success of the administration\u2019s latest effort, its blockade of Iranian ports, depends on the ability of the United States and its allies to withstand the additional pressure that Iran could impose on Persian Gulf trade in response.<\/p>\n Mona Yacoubian, a former State Department official and Middle East expert, drew a contrast in Mr. Trump\u2019s struggle with Iran to his success in exacting concessions from U.S. allies by threatening them with tariffs.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is not something he has control over with the stroke of a pen,\u201d said Ms. Yacoubian, who directs the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. \u201cThis is where the president\u2019s approach of his own charismatic and powerful personality, in my view, is not a match for the complexity, the opacity, that is the case with Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n The administration has been eager to portray a groundbreaking deal with Iran as being possible. Vice President JD Vance said Tuesday that Mr. Trump sought a \u201cgrand bargain\u201d in which the United States would treat Iran \u201ceconomically like a normal country\u201d if it acted \u201clike a normal country.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cHe doesn\u2019t want a small deal,\u201d Mr. Vance said.<\/p>\n Mr. Vance ended an extensive session of talks<\/a> with Iranian officials in Pakistan last week without an agreement. He said Tuesday that the United States would keep negotiating, and that \u201cthe people we were sitting across from wanted to make a deal.\u201d<\/p>\n