Why I\u2019m Confident Queen To Dallas For Pick #12 Is Likely<\/p>\n
I\u2019ve managed to make myself about 70% sure the Steelers really are going to trade Patrick Queen to Dallas<\/a> in exchange for moving up from pick #21 to pick #12.<\/p>\n The math works out too perfectly on all the modern, stat-based trade charts. I could go on with a few more points, but the bottom line is that nothing seems likely to stop this unless the early selections go so strangely that one of the teams will move off the deal.<\/p>\n Who Do You Think Pittsburgh Should Target at #12?<\/p>\n I discussed most of this in the article linked above, along with the fact that Pittsburgh would almost certainly be looking at either a top guard or wide receiver at #12; the same positions we\u2019ve focused on for #21, but with no risk about losing our favorite in the teens \u2013 which seems likely. The actual players the team would be looking at include the following. I will end this article by asking you to sort them out, and to explain your reasoning in the comments if you can spare the time:<\/p>\n WR Carnell Tate {Mtg. at the Combine} The Rounds 2-3 Considerations<\/p>\n Let me say it for you: \u201cMy answer depends on who I think could be available in Rounds 2-3.\u201d<\/p>\n Fair enough. I agree. Here\u2019s a summary. There are four guard prospects who stand who stand out for Round 2 or the early 3rd:<\/p>\n Early 2: OG Chase Bisontis {Mtg. at the Combine} There are four ILB prospects who stand out for Round 2 or the early 3rd:<\/p>\n Early 2: ILB C.J. Allen {Mtg. at the Combine, Khan and McCarthy at Pro Day} Ignoring the late-1st talent who could theoretically fall into Round 2 (Cooper, Concepcion, and Boston), the WRs who stand out for Round 2 or the early 3rd include:<\/p>\n Early-Mid 2: WR Chris Brazzell II Brief Observations On The Five Prospects<\/p>\n Assume Good Intangibles: Add in anything special you know, but don\u2019t stress about it. We cannot meet the young men, look them in the eye, and talk for a few hours after first reviewing a multipage background study from our highly professional scouts and investigators. So we have uncertainty and unknowns far beyond what actual GMs must face. Assume that we\u2019d have heard about any important issues, and I can tell you we know of none for any of the five.<\/p>\n WR Carnell Tate: He has been a superb Robin in college, but never Batman, and that seems likely to continue. Titanium steel WR2 floor, but likely a WR1.b ceiling. Don\u2019t forget that Robin was a superhero too.<\/p>\n WR Jordyn Tyson (certified as 100% healthy): You and I have no way to evaluate Tyson\u2019s health projection, and thus we hedge and discount. Khan & Co. have reports from some of the best experts in the world, based on exhaustive testing, and have no doubts at all. They have a simple yes\/no, stop\/go decision, with no obscuring smoke. I will admit to having questions anyway, but I\u2019m man enough to admit they are based in my own lazy assumptions and medical ignorance. For this exercise, once Tyson is on the board you can assume he\u2019s been totally cleared by the docs, and character-certified by his coach (Hines Ward).<\/p>\n Besides, there is no pattern to the injuries! The big one was an every-ligament knee tear in 2003. We know that\u2019s history because he played on it with no handicap for the next two years. The collarbone was a freak accident that occurred when something like three other men fell on him at odd angles<\/a>. And lingering hamstrings are just one of those things that happens when you play the WR position. Let the doctors do their job.<\/p>\n WR Makai Lemon: No, he isn\u2019t \u201cjust a slot receiver.\u201d People compare him to Amon-Ra St. Brown for a reason. The so-called issues about his demeanor at the Combine can be summed up like this: his demeanor was a little off-putting, and observers used that to raise long term diva and team fit concerns. This is another yes\/no, stop\/go point where the teams have information we do not. If he is on the board at #12, all of those questions have been answered. If they haven\u2019t been answered, he wouldn\u2019t be on the board.<\/p>\n I should add that character had been a selling point up to that instant. The USC coaching staff tried very hard to move him over to CB instead of WR. He did not come in as The Guy. Quite the contrary. He swallowed that assault on his dream, stuck it out in the same program, and responded by outworking everyone else. Makai Lemon built himself into the talented and technical receiver we see today, and he did it over opposition. Very admirable stuff.<\/p>\n OG Vega Ioane: No one has done anything but rave about Ioane on the field. He is mobile enough for every scheme, and outright great in a downhill running attack. I have recently dug deeper into his intangibles, and would like to share a few of the especially positive notes I found. Check out this video<\/a>, where he hopped a wall to help an Ohio State equipment guy push a heavy cart uphill. The event also happened right after the Buckeyes had pounded the Nittany Lions, so Ioane had to be starting from a foul mood. Grade bumped a notch. Dane Brugler reports that Ioane won \u201cmultiple Academic All-Big Ten honors.\u201d Another box checked. There is also no question that he will fit the Steelers culture-wise.<\/p>\n G\/T Spencer Fano: Fano has been considered one of the top 2-3 offensive tackles throughout the process, despite having very short 32\u215e\u201d arms. That\u2019s tackles, not guards. No typo. He gained that respect because he\u2019s tremendously broad, meaning the wingspan compensates for a bit of the missing arm length<\/a>, and he is a sickeningly brilliant 97th percentile athlete<\/a>. Steelers fans can cartoon-characterize him as a shorter-armed Troy Fautanu. All of this means he\u2019s a sort of Ioane mirror-image if viewed as a guard. He\u2019s off the charts for movement skills, and merely at the proverbial line for people-moving core strength and power. His ability to win the leverage game as a run blocking tackle won nothing but praise.<\/p>\n The Steelers have been trying to build an outside zone running attack for the past several year, and never quite managed to do it. Fano would be ideal for that after some professional strength training. Ioane would fit better if the incoming McCarthy system will be more of a gap\/power approach. Fano would be eye popping as a puller, while Ioane would merely be excellent. Ioane would be eye-popping on inside zone plays, while Fano would merely be excellent. In other words, both are worthy options.<\/p>\n Conclusion<\/p>\n I\u2019m about 70% sure the Steelers really are going to trade Patrick Queen to Dallas in exchange for moving up from pick #21 to pick #12. That means we need to adjust our thinking. ILB becomes a significant want, though not a need because of the Holcomb signing. And we now have a choice among the riches that we could only hope for nine picks later.<\/p>\n We are looking at five excellent prospects. Which do you prefer if the Steelers are picking in Round 1, and in what order? I look forward to your thoughts.<\/p>\n In the interest of full disclosure, my ideal outcome would be Ioane at #12; and using all those extra picks to trade up again so the team will have a pair of Round 2 selections. I would then us the 2.a pick on WR Germie Bernard, and the 2.b pick the top remaining ILB (hopefully Allen or Rodriguez). That said, I admit to having a huge draft crush on Bernard, which may slant my thinking. I can easily see why others would look at the Round 3 alternatives and prefer to pick an ILB before a receiver.<\/p>\n I\u2019m out in the open. The ball is in your court.<\/p>\n
\nGetting Queen would solve one of the Cowboys main draft objectives without costing a pick away from some other option.
\nA Patrick Queen contract equivalent to his last one would cost around $22 Million a\/p\/y in 2026, and significantly more in 2027 as the cap keeps moving up. I don\u2019t see the Steelers paying that with all the other contracts to deal with.
\nIt\u2019s quite possible that Queen asked the team to look into a trade. \u201cWe want volunteers, not hostages\u201d is a real thing for Pittsburgh.
\nNegotiating with Queen\u2019s new-this-year agent will take time, and would explain why the smoke got so intense a few months back and then faded.
\nThe Steelers signed Cole Holcomb to a 2-year deal in free agency. Holcomb lacks the upside of Patrick Queen, but he\u2019s probably better at handling green-dot duties. That move means that trading Queen away will leave a significant \u201cwant\u201d on draft day, but it won\u2019t be anything like a gaping need. The Steelers could still field a quality starting lineup on opening day even if they cannot find the right draft pick.
\nTrading Patrick Queen would leave the Steelers with all twelve picks as draft capital to trade up in subsequent rounds too. That should ensure a good ILB selection without interfering with our goal of staffing WR and OG asap.
\nThis trade would make sense of all the mysteries in this year\u2019s draft contacts and visits. Examples would be the failure to bring in WR Omar Cooper Jr. for a visit, bringing in OG Spencer Fano for a visit, interviewing almost every WR prospect in the first three rounds, interviewing every guard prospect in the first two rounds, interviewing all four of the ILB prospects with Round 1-2 grades, and a few others.
\nBoth GMs would like to make a splash in this year\u2019s draft, and this trade would accomplish that.<\/p>\n
\nWR Jordyn Tyson {Mtg. at the Combine, coach Hines Ward in for the draft}
\nWR Makai Lemon {Mtg. at the Combine, Visit}
\nOG Vega Ioane {Visit}
\nG\/T Spencer Fano {Visit}<\/p>\n
\nEarly 2: OG Emmanuel Pregnon {Mtg. at the Combine}
\nMid-Late 2: OG Keylan Rutledge {Visit}
\nMid-Late 2: G\/T Gennings Dunker
\nEarly 3: None, but there are more than a dozen from the mid 3rd through the 4th<\/p>\n
\nEarly 2: ILB Jake Rodriguez {Visit}
\nEarly 2: ILB Jake Golday {Mtg. at the Combine}
\nEarly 2: ILB Anthony Hill {Mtg. at the Combine}
\nEarly 3: Josiah Trotter<\/p>\n
\nEarly-Mid 2: WR Germy Bernard {Mtg. at the Combine, Visit}
\nRound 2: WR Chris Bell {Round 1 talent w\/ torn ACL}
\nMid- to Late 2: WR Skyler Bell (returner too?) {Visit}
\nMid- to Late 2: WR\/PR Antonio Williams {Mtg. at the Combine}
\nMid- to Late 2: WR Malachi Fields {Mtg. at the Combine}
\nRound 2-3: WR Ted Hurst {Mtg. at the Combine}
\nRound 2-3: WR Elijah Sarratt {Mtg. at the Combine}
\nRound 2-3: WR\/PR Zachariah Branch {Mtg. at the Combine, Pro Day Dinner}
\nRound 3: WR\/PR Deion Burks {Mtg. at the Combine}
\nRound 3: WR Jeff Caldwell {Visit}
\nRound 3: WR Ja\u2019Kobi Lane {Mtg. at the Combine}
\nRound 3: WR De\u2019Zhaun Stribling {Mtg. at the Combine}<\/p>\n