Even if the Strait of Hormuz opens again, energy executives and analysts say the industry will no longer be able to count on it as it used to. For the strait, there is no going back to normal.<\/p>\n
Countries across the region are exploring building, expanding or rehabilitating infrastructure that would bypass the strait.<\/p>\n
And nations that import fuel from the region are racing to secure oil and gas from elsewhere, putting conservation measures in place and turning to alternatives like coal. Those strategies are likely to shift over time. Today\u2019s coal use may give way to greater investment in solar power and nuclear energy, for example.<\/p>\n
No matter what happens next, Iran will not forget how easy it is to strangle shipping through the strait, meaning that energy companies and consumers must prepare for a very different future.<\/p>\n
\u201cFrom the moment missiles started falling and drones started hitting, it was very clear that we weren\u2019t going back,\u201d said Badr Jafar, a businessman who serves as special envoy for business and philanthropy for the United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n
To stem the current energy crisis, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates have rerouted substantial portions of the oil they produce to ports away from the Strait of Hormuz, via pipelines built years ago in preparation for a crisis. Iraq also recently started sending a small amount of oil<\/a> to Turkey in a pipeline that has slid in and out of service for years because of political and armed conflict.<\/p>\n More than seven million barrels of oil are being shipped out of the Persian Gulf each day on one of those routes, up from fewer than four million barrels a day before the war, according to the International Energy Agency.<\/p>\n But that is a fraction of the 20 million barrels of oil that traveled through the strait daily before the war. And pipelines are doing nothing for geographically isolated countries like Kuwait and Qatar. They are also of little use for transporting aluminum, fertilizer and other goods.<\/p>\n For those reasons, not to mention geopolitical objectives, reopening the strait remains very important. The strait\u2019s centrality is why international oil prices plunged 9 percent<\/a> on Friday, to their lowest levels since the second week of the war, after Iran\u2019s foreign minister said the strait would be \u201ccompletely open.\u201d<\/p>\n But Tehran reversed course the next day, after President Trump made clear that U.S. forces would keep blockading vessels traveling to and from Iranian ports. The United States later seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that Mr. Trump said had tried to get around the U.S. blockade.<\/p>\n That back-and-forth reinforced the idea that free passage through the strait can be halted by any world power determined to do so.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Strait of Hormuz will be less important in 2030 or 2035 than it was in January,\u201d said Elliott Abrams, who served as a special representative for Iran and Venezuela during the first Trump administration. \u201cPeople will find alternatives.\u201d<\/p>\n Some simpler options include expanding existing pipelines, storage capacity and ports in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. But that would solve only a portion of the problem. Most Gulf countries do not have the benefit of access to another coast that lies outside the strait.<\/p>\n Iraq, which is among those without another coast, has floated building a new pipeline to the Mediterranean Sea<\/a> by way of Syria.<\/p>\n