The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has become a barometer of how the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is affecting the global economy.<\/p>\n
On Tuesday, after nearly eight weeks of war, that number was one, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Then Wednesday, more ships tried and Iran attacked two cargo vessels in the strait. <\/p>\n
\u201cThey are reminding us that their threats to attack ships are genuine, and that\u2019s enough to suppress traffic through the strait,\u201d said Rosemary Kelanic, a director at Defense Priorities, a research organization focused on foreign affairs. Ships linked to Iran have passed through the strait, ship tracking data shows.<\/p>\n
The latest attacks show that Tehran still has a stranglehold on the strait that allows it to ratchet up the pain on the global economy, even though the U.S. military has struck some 13,000 targets in Iran and set up a naval blockade against it. This strategic move gives Iran leverage in any talks with the United States to end the war.<\/p>\n
In normal times, about a fifth of the world\u2019s oil supply and a significant share of its natural gas went through the strait on ships. But with that supply stalled, the prices of gasoline, diesel and gas used for cooking and home heating are rising around the world<\/a>, piling new costs onto businesses and consumers.<\/p>\n While the United States and Israel have said that they wanted to end Iran\u2019s nuclear program and depose its leaders, Tehran has made it into a war that is also about shipping.<\/p>\n For decades, it made more economic sense to transport oil in tankers the length of three football fields rather than pump it through overland pipelines. While such pipelines exist and are carrying more oil since the war began, those extra flows don\u2019t make up the shortfall created by the waterway\u2019s closure. All told, there has been about a 10 percent reduction in the supply of oil to the world, according to data from the International Energy Agency.<\/p>\n An average of around eight ships a day had been passing through the strait before the latest attacks, down from 130 a day before the war.<\/p>\n Then on Friday, after Iran and the United States said the waterway was fully open, many ships started to move toward the strait with the apparent aim of passing through.<\/p>\n But hours later, Iran said it would crack down on ships entering the strait because the United States had not ended its blockade of Iranian vessels, southeast of the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf of Oman.<\/p>\n The few hours that the strait seemed to be open, Michelle Wiese Bockmann, an analyst at Windward, a maritime analysis firm, saw many ships positioning for an exit.<\/p>\n But after reports on Saturday that Iran had attacked a ship, she said, tracking software showed 33 vessels stop their attempts at passage. \u201cWhat I saw on Saturday morning was nascent confidence,\u201d she said, \u201cThen, literally, before my eyes, I saw everything start to turn around.\u201d<\/p>\n Ms. Wiese Bockmann said 12 ships with no apparent links to Iran had made it through.<\/p>\n Even those vessels typically get Iran\u2019s permission to make the passage, and Iranian authorities demand that they take a route that runs close to Iran, rather than the two main lanes through the middle of the strait used before the war, which began on Feb. 28.<\/p>\n \u201cThere is no freedom of navigation,\u201d Ms. Wiese Bockmann said.<\/p>\n On Wednesday, Iranian news media named the two cargo vessels targeted as the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas. MSC, based in Switzerland, is the world\u2019s largest container shipping company. It did not respond to requests for comment.<\/p>\n Technomar Shipping, the Greek manager of the Epaminondas, said in a statement that the vessel was attempting to pass through the strait \u201cwhen it was approached and fired upon by a manned gunboat.\u201d It said that the crew were safe, and that there were no reports of injuries or water pollution.<\/p>\n More Iranian-linked ships have been going through the strait than those with no links, according to data from Lloyd\u2019s List Intelligence. From March 2 through Sunday, 308 ships with Iranian links went through, or an average of six a day, according to Lloyd\u2019s List. They were either carrying Iranian cargo, included on an anti-Iran sanctions list or acting in such a way \u2014 for instance, turning off their transponders to hide their locations \u2014 that strongly suggested that they were doing business with Iran.<\/p>\n Over the same period, 90 ships with no such links to Iran went through the strait, or an average of three a day, according to Lloyd\u2019s List\u2019s data.<\/p>\n To try to stop the Iranian ships, the United States set up a blockade on April 13. One of its aims was to cut off Iran\u2019s oil exports, which were bringing in valuable revenue for its war-stricken economy. Before the blockade, Iran was exporting roughly as much oil during the war as it was before.<\/p>\n The U.S. military has said no Iranian ships have gotten through the blockade, and it seized an Iranian tanker on Sunday attempting to do so. U.S. Central Command said<\/a> on Wednesday that it had turned back 29 vessels.<\/p>\n But Lloyd\u2019s List\u2019s analysts say seven Iranian-linked ships have passed through both the Strait of Hormuz and the blockade since April 13.<\/p>\n Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for Central Command, on Wednesday disputed Lloyd\u2019s List\u2019s analysis and stood by its earlier statement that the blockade had not been evaded by Iranian-linked vessels.<\/p>\n