It has become a tired adage, but nonetheless true. The world\u2019s poorest countries will suffer the most from climate change despite being least responsible for it.<\/p>\n
Leaders in the Caribbean and from vulnerable island states around the world have been repeating this for years. And they have been asking the world\u2019s rich countries, whose greenhouse gas emissions over generations<\/a> have fueled warmer seas and bigger storms, to help them prepare.<\/p>\n With Hurricane Melissa scouring Jamaica with vicious intensity before setting its sights on Cuba and the Bahamas, it is likely that many of the affected countries will once again be overwhelmed by the expense of recovery. The Caribbean is the world\u2019s most exposed region to climate-fueled disasters, according to the International Monetary Fund, which has said the region requires about $100 billion in economic investment to build resilience.<\/p>\n In one of his first acts upon entering the White House, President Trump stopped the United States from contributing funding to help vulnerable countries<\/a> prepare for the threats from global warming. Since then, the administration has dismantled virtually all of the foreign aid programs and offices that work with poor countries and others struggling to cope with disasters.<\/p>\n \u201cOur countries don\u2019t have the luxury to become more resilient to climate change,\u201d said Michai Robertson, a senior adviser to the Alliance of Small Island States, who is from the Caribbean nation of Antigua and Barbuda. Infrastructure on Barbuda was decimated by Hurricane Irma in 2017, a storm that caused more than $77 billion in damages across the Caribbean and South Florida.<\/p>\n \u201cIf people are facing the choice between getting shutters for your home versus getting food on the table, the obvious, humane choice is the latter,\u201d Mr. Robertson said \u201cBut the reality is that it all could be wiped out. That\u2019s the gravity of the situation.\u201d<\/p>\n A nightmarish scenario is unfolding in Jamaica, where predicted rainfall from the hurricane is being measured in feet, not inches. Melissa is already sure to be one of the most powerful storms on record<\/a>, and forecasters have warned that wind speeds are high enough in its eyewall that they could cause \u201ctotal structural failure\u201d and widespread power and communication outages.<\/p>\n Understanding whether Hurricane Melissa was affected by climate change would require scientists to first run experiments known as attribution analysis, which can take place after a weather event happens. Research has shown generally that global warming is making hurricanes more intense<\/a> in part because they gain energy from warmer ocean water. <\/p>\n On Tuesday morning, as the storm bore down, Mr. Robertson said his brother and grandparents were in Jamaica. Everyone in his family was on edge and nervously checking their phones, he said.<\/p>\n \u201cIn moments like this it really hits home that there\u2019s this void and lack of leadership,\u201d he said. \u201cNot only are wealthy countries retreating from fighting climate change, they\u2019re not listening to us.\u201d<\/p>\n Mia Mottley, the prime minister of Barbados, has been outspoken on the need for financial help for small island states. She spoke last month at United Nations General Assembly in New York City.Credit…Dave Sanders for The New York Times<\/p>\n Hurricanes have inflicted tens of billions of dollars of damage on Caribbean nations in recent years, leaving most heavily in debt. Jamaica, the Bahamas, Barbados, and Antigua and Barbuda, all recently hit by major hurricanes, have debts that are nearly equal in size to their entire economies.<\/p>\n \u201cI know first hand the devastation, the heartbreak, the economic dislocation that these monster storms can deliver, and it\u2019s tragic,\u201d said Selwin Hart, the United Nations assistant secretary general for climate action and a former ambassador from Barbados.<\/p>\n He noted that in the Caribbean, as with other island nations dependent on tourism, a major storm like Melissa has the potential in just a few hours to set back years of economic gains.<\/p>\n Mia Mottley, the prime minister of Barbados, has emerged as a leading global voice<\/a> on securing financial solutions to the disaster and debt spiral affecting small island states. She has rallied leaders of larger and richer nations to support reforms at the world\u2019s largest lending institutions like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund such as suspending debt repayments while poorer nations recover from disasters.<\/p>\n The Inter-American Development Bank<\/a> has found that, in the aftermath of severe storms, debt levels in Caribbean countries are 18 percent higher than what would otherwise be expected.<\/p>\n Potentially complicating recovery efforts, many island nations are reliant on fossil fuels that are imported by sea. Jamaica generates more than 85 percent of its electricity from liquefied natural gas and crude oil imports, and it depends on a single state-owned refinery nestled on the Kingston Harbor shoreline. Damage to that facility alone could severely hinder any local rescue and recovery efforts.<\/p>\n In recent days, Jamaica\u2019s energy minister, Daryl Vaz, has said the refinery, Petrojam, has been working around the clock to stockpile fuel. \u201cWe\u2019ve activated all refinery emergency systems, and confirmed sufficient fuel supplies, over two weeks\u2019 worth,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n In just a week from now, negotiators from around the world will converge in Brazil for the United Nations\u2019 annual climate summit. The global talks, known by the acronym COP, have been increasingly dominated by the question of money. The United Nations has issued studies showing that developing countries need more than one trillion dollars per year to both transition their economies away from polluting fossil fuels that drive climate change, and to adapt to the changes already underway.<\/p>\n