President Trump clearly wants to end the war in Iran. First, he tried scare tactics. But his ultimatums proved flexible and his threats to wipe out a civilization empty (at least so far). Now he\u2019s trying to inflict financial pain on the Iranian leadership. But his blockade and U.S. Navy escorts for ships through the Strait of Hormuz aren\u2019t faring much better.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s inability to force the Islamic republic to do what he wants, from opening the Strait of Hormuz to giving up its nuclear stockpile, points to a larger truth: Maybe America doesn\u2019t understand Iran. Today my colleague Steven Erlanger, our chief diplomatic correspondent, writes about why there may be no easy way to end this war.<\/p>\n
President Trump keeps looking for the silver bullet that will help him declare victory in Iran.<\/p>\n
It started with his late March demand that the country \u201cFULLY OPEN\u201d the Strait of Hormuz \u2014 its closure has sent global energy and fertilizer prices spiking \u2014 or face the destruction of its power plants.<\/p>\n
When that didn\u2019t work, he escalated, threatening to wipe out \u201ca whole civilization\u201d should Iran not comply.<\/p>\n
When that didn\u2019t work, he bet on a blockade of Iranian shipping, which he hoped could cause enough pain for the regime that it might finally relinquish its hold on the waterway.<\/p>\n
And as that hasn\u2019t borne fruit, this week, in a new effort to break Iran\u2019s control over the strait, Trump announced a plan<\/a>, with few details, to help guide stranded ships out of the passage.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not clear that this will work either.<\/p>\n Iran responded<\/a> with some missiles and drones. Given the risks, most tankers are unlikely to dare<\/a> crossing the strait for now.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s conviction that more economic or even military pressure will bring about Iran\u2019s capitulation is deeply flawed, officials and analysts say. They say it is a misreading of the Islamic republic\u2019s strategy, psychology and capability for adaptation.<\/p>\n The Iranian government believes that it has the upper hand for now. It thinks it can withstand the new economic pressure, as it has in the past. And \u2014 crucially \u2014 it thinks it can do so longer than Trump can tolerate rising global and American gasoline, energy and fertilizer prices.<\/p>\n The war has become a test of wills between Iran and the U.S. But for Iran, the stakes are higher \u2014 which, in a standoff, gives it an advantage.<\/p>\n A test of wills<\/p>\n By putting a blockade in place, Trump is effectively betting that Iran\u2019s capacity to store the oil it\u2019s pumping, but cannot export, will soon run out.<\/p>\n \u201cIf they don\u2019t get their oil moving, their whole oil infrastructure is going to explode,\u201d Trump said late last month, adding: \u201cThey say they only have about three days left before that happens.\u201d<\/p>\n But that assertion \u2014 already proven wrong \u2014 might be relying on a miscalculation.<\/p>\n Oil experts believe that Iran has at least several weeks before it must stop pumping, which can cause significant damage to its infrastructure. But Iran, which was exporting some 1.81 million barrels of oil a day in April, can reduce its production while continuing to store oil in empty or older tankers, which can hold an estimated 2 million barrels each, shipping some of it by road and rail to Pakistan. During Trump\u2019s first term, Iran ramped production down to about 200,000 barrels a day without significant damage to its oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n \u201cIran is not particularly close to even starting\u201d to shut down its wells, said Brett Erickson of Obsidian Risk Advisors. Sanctions and the blockade will move the needle, but \u201cthere is no feasible scenario by which they will produce the necessary result in a feasible timeline\u201d for Trump. Even if the war ends today, Erickson said, \u201cit will be multiple months before things return to normal.\u201d<\/p>\n One little turn of the screw away?<\/p>\n Experts are dubious that time will work in Trump\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n \u201cWe can certainly do more damage to the Iranian economy, but they have withstood more pressure than any other economy in history, and that hasn\u2019t produced the collapse of the regime or more reasonable positions,\u201d said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran specialist and the director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution.<\/p>\n \u201cI think President Trump doesn\u2019t really understand what drives the Iranians,\u201d Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, told me. \u201cThey don\u2019t make decisions based on their G.D.P., because if so, they would have done a deal years ago.\u201d<\/p>\n If anything, Iran\u2019s positions have hardened over the course of the war. But Trump\u2019s tactics have not changed. \u201cAt every point when pressure has not delivered the intended result, he\u2019s sought a new tool of coercion which he believed would magically conjure victory,\u201d said Ali Vaez, Iran project director for the International Crisis Group. \u201cHe always believes he\u2019s one little turn of the screw away.\u201d<\/p>\n It\u2019s not that the U.S. strategies aren\u2019t inflicting pain. They are. But Iran is such an authoritarian state that the kind of political drivers that might push compromise don\u2019t exist, Maloney said.<\/p>\n Trump, on the other hand, is facing midterm elections in the fall. And there is only so much pain voters will take.<\/p>\n Read my full story here<\/a>.<\/p>\n Other developments in the war:<\/p>\n Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. naval effort that began on Monday was a temporary defensive effort. \u201cWe\u2019re not looking for a fight<\/a>,\u201d he told reporters.<\/p>\n Some 1,600 ships remain stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, with roughly 20,000 seafarers on board. A U.S.-flagged ship exited<\/a> under U.S. protection on Monday but no ships transited the strait yesterday.<\/p>\n Follow our live updates<\/a>.<\/p>\n Saher Alghorra, a Palestinian photographer and Times contributor, won a Pulitzer Prize for his work covering the Gaza conflict. Take a look at his photos<\/a>.<\/p>\n Top of The World<\/p>\n The most clicked link in your newsletter yesterday was the Tucker Carlson interview<\/a>.<\/p>\n SPORTS<\/p>\n Tennis: Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff said that stars would eventually boycott Grand Slams<\/a> over prize money disputes.<\/p>\n World Cup: New Jersey is one of the most in-demand regions for training bases during the tournament. Morocco, Haiti, Brazil and Senegal<\/a> will set up there.<\/p>\n Over the next two weeks, a glowing blue-green comet, believed to have originated at the edge of the solar system in an icy region called the Oort cloud, will swing over New Zealand, Australia and South Africa. The comet is a slow one and may not return for another 170,000 years. So stargazers should check it out now.<\/p>\n Ilhan Sami \u00c7omak was serving a life sentence in a Turkish maximum security prison when he met Ipek Ozel, the woman who would become his life partner.<\/p>\n In the mid-1990s, \u00c7omak was accused of belonging to a Kurdish separatist group and arrested, a charge he still denies. He spent the next 30 years in jail. There, he read widely and discovered his own voice, writing tender poems to stave off despair. His works inspired Ozel, a volunteer at the prison, to become his literary champion. But through letters, their connection grew into something deeper. Read more about their unlikely love story<\/a>.<\/p>\n AROUND THE WORLDNo camera, no actors: A.I. is upending film in China<\/p>\n Until recently, making hit microdramas \u2014 soapy, short-form, made-for-mobile shows that have become wildly popular in China \u2014 meant hiring actors, renting sets and spending weeks filming and editing. Now, thanks to artificial intelligence, some Chinese companies are churning them out for $30 a minute with no cameras, no crews and no human performers.<\/p>\n The surge in A.I.-generated dramas has prompted an outcry in China. Actors say work has dried up, and both celebrities and ordinary people have threatened legal action after discovering their likenesses in the A.I. shows.<\/p>\n My colleagues spoke to people in China\u2019s entertainment industry. Read how A.I. has changed their lives<\/a>.<\/p>\n RECOMMENDATIONS<\/p>\n Horchata is a Latin American beverage made by soaking nuts and grains in water and then seasoning the mixture with sugar and spices. This Mexican recipe<\/a> is made with rice, cinnamon and almonds. Want a caffeine kick? Try the dirty version<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"President Trump clearly wants to end the war in Iran. First, he tried scare tactics. 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