{"id":221696,"date":"2026-05-06T09:20:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T09:20:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/221696\/"},"modified":"2026-05-06T09:20:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T09:20:15","slug":"how-many-nyc-jobs-state-snafu-brings-confusion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/221696\/","title":{"rendered":"How Many NYC Jobs? State SNAFU Brings Confusion"},"content":{"rendered":"

When the Independent Budget Office and the city comptroller<\/a> released their annual economic and budget review late last year, they projected that New York City would add about 40,000 jobs in 2025, mostly home health care jobs. <\/p>\n

But when the final numbers came out in the spring, the state labor department said the city had actually lost 20,000 jobs<\/a> \u2014 with a sharp reduction in home health care jobs.<\/p>\n

Now a report from economist James Parrott says that the city in fact added 22,000 jobs last year.<\/p>\n

What happened? According to Parrott, senior adviser to the Center for New York City Affairs at the New School, the state Department of Labor\u2019s numbers on home health care jobs have been inaccurate for the last two years. What does it mean? It will be very hard to know what is happening with the city economy this year, which could affect everything from economic development efforts to projections of city tax revenues.<\/p>\n

\u201cUnless you make a hard adjustment in the data to correct for the misreporting of homecare jobs, we\u2019re left with a distorted view of the city\u2019s economy<\/a> and job market,\u201d Parrott said.<\/p>\n

\"WorkersWorkers and tourists walk past the New York Stock Exchange on Wall Street, March 18, 2024. Credit: Ben Fractenberg\/THE CITY<\/p>\n

How Economists Track Employment<\/p>\n

Every month, the U.S. Department of Labor asks 600,000 employers nationwide how many jobs they added or shed. That may not seem like a lot, but political polls routinely report who is ahead in a presidential race by reaching no more than 3,000 voters and often as few as 1,000. The New York City job numbers are based on the reports of the local employers.<\/p>\n

In the spring, those numbers are revised based on unemployment insurance taxes paid by all employers. These numbers are more comprehensive.<\/p>\n

What Went Wrong?<\/p>\n

Home health care employment surged between 2022 and 2025 when the state began allowing relatives and friends to be paid for providing care to seniors and disabled clients under the state\u2019s Medicaid program. The state also allowed 600 social service agencies to be involved to hire and pay them. It became very difficult to track how many people had been hired and where they were working.<\/p>\n

In the spring of 2025, to control costs, the administration of Gov. Kathy Hochul<\/a> established a single intermediary for the hiring of all health aides<\/a>, which resulted in more precise data. Parrot says the new information showed that the labor department had overstated the number of those jobs in the city and understated those outside the city.<\/p>\n

\"\"Brooklyn-based Galaxy Home Care employs home health aids affiliated with the Home Healthcare Workers of America, Dec. 17, 2024. Credit: Alex Krales\/THE CITY<\/p>\n

So, What Are the Real Job Numbers?<\/p>\n

As a result, says Parrott, the city actually gained about 22,000 jobs, which \u2014 while much slower than in recent years \u2014 was considerably better than the national jobs increase in percentage terms.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Other economists who track the city\u2019s economy told THE CITY they believed Parrott\u2019s work<\/a> was accurate.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A spokesperson for the state Labor Department didn\u2019t return a request for comment.\u00a0<\/p>\n

What Does This Mean for 2026?<\/p>\n

Since the revised 2025 state labor department numbers are not accurate, it will be impossible to compare the current number of jobs in New York City\u00a0with 2025, leaving uncertainty in the official data about whether the city is actually gaining or losing employment.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

For example, March data released last week showed the city has lost 37,000 positions over the last 12 months. But if the March 2025 job number is not correct, neither is the 37,000 figure.<\/p>\n

Another Complication<\/p>\n

City officials, especially during the Adams administration, loved to focus on what they called private sector jobs, which means all jobs except government. The problem is that the majority of health care and social service jobs \u2014 like those of home health aides \u2014 are paid for by tax dollars, so they aren\u2019t really private sector jobs.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The city comptroller has begun tracking private sector jobs excluding health care and social services. Meanwhile, government jobs are generally good paying ones \u2014 they count too.<\/p>\n

\"\"Transit cleaners get to work as commuters leave the E train at World Trade Center on Friday, September 2, 2022. Credit: Hiram Alejandro Dur\u00e1n\/THE CITY<\/p>\n

How\u2019s the economy?<\/p>\n

\u201cThe city\u2019s labor market lost momentum in 2025,\u201d Parrott writes, \u201cThe unemployment rate and poverty rate<\/a> are higher than before the pandemic.\u201d He adds that the impact of higher tariffs, rising prices because of the war with Iran and anticipated job losses due to artificial intelligence suggest the labor market will be marked by instability and structural transformation.<\/p>\n

The state comptroller\u2019s office is also worried.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe analysis just confirms what has become a recurring story on jobs \u2014 government and Wall Street<\/a> are critical contributors amid a slowing job growth picture in the city,\u201d said Rahul Jain, the deputy comptroller for New York City. \u201cWe are becoming more, not less, reliant on these sectors for job growth and some of the traditional ladders for entering and moving up through the wage ladder.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Sectors like leisure,\u00a0 hospitality and construction \u201care showing softness,\u201d he added.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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