Ken Paxton\u2019s victory in Texas on Tuesday transformed the deep red state into the nation\u2019s newest political battleground, expanding the Senate map, previewing lines of attack from both parties and offering a test of President Trump\u2019s influence in the general election.<\/p>\n
Democrats still face an uphill battle in their quest to turn<\/a> Texas blue, even with the excitement surrounding their nominee, James Talarico, a state legislator and seminary student who is pitching a brand of inclusive politics<\/a>.<\/p>\n But the ascension of Mr. Paxton, a scandal-plagued state attorney general who trounced Senator John Cornyn after receiving the \u201cComplete and Total Endorsement<\/a>\u201d of President Trump last week, promised a general election clash as big as, well, Texas.<\/p>\n Expanding the map.<\/p>\n Many Democrats, and some Republicans, said that they thought the nomination of Mr. Paxton could put Texas into play for Democrats, joining the relatively small number of battleground states<\/a> that could decide control of the Senate.<\/p>\n With the Republicans holding 53 seats in the Senate, Democrats will have to defend all the seats they currently hold and flip four more seats in order to win control in November. Party leaders initially focused on flipping Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio<\/a>. But with Mr. Trump\u2019s approval rating sagging,<\/a> some now see Texas as offering another possible path.<\/p>\n And, already, there are signs that the role Mr. Trump played in ousting another incumbent Republican senator \u2014 the president backed the challenger who defeated Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana this month in a primary \u2014 risks hampering his agenda on Capitol Hill.<\/p>\n Opening with attacks.<\/p>\n Both Mr. Paxton and Mr. Talarico framed the Texas race in existential terms on Tuesday night. Mr. Paxton cast Mr. Talarico as a \u201cweird\u201d liberal, while Mr. Talarico described Mr. Paxton as a tool of billionaire donors stealing public resources from regular working people.<\/p>\n \u201cWithout a shadow of a doubt, I will be the Democrats\u2019 number one target in November,\u201d Mr. Paxton told supporters at his victory night party.<\/p>\n Moments before Mr. Paxton took the stage in Plano, Texas, Mr. Talarico\u2019s campaign released a video calling his opponent the \u201cmost corrupt politician in America.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cFor 50 years, megadonors and their puppet politicians like Ken Paxton have stolen from us with their bribes, bailouts, and billionaire tax breaks,\u201d Mr. Talarico said. \u201cThat ends this year. In this state. In this race.\u201d<\/p>\n Can Democrats finally put Texas in play?<\/p>\n No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994. But many Democrats said that they believed the nomination of Mr. Paxton, with all his baggage, could offer them their best chance of victory in years.<\/p>\n While Mr. Trump\u2019s late endorsement helped propel Mr. Paxton\u2019s decisive victory in the low-turnout Republican primary, it is not clear how it will play in the general election, given the president\u2019s low approval ratings, the unpopular Iran war and rising gas prices.<\/p>\n \u201cPaxton doesn\u2019t know how to broaden his appeal,\u201d said Matt Mackowiak, a senior adviser to Mr. Cornyn. \u201cHe runs generals like they\u2019re primaries. I don\u2019t know that he\u2019s run in an environment like this.\u201d<\/p>\n Former Representative Beto O\u2019Rourke, a Democrat who came within three points of knocking out Senator Ted Cruz in 2018, predicted Mr. Paxton\u2019s appeal to Republican primary voters will not translate to the much broader electorate in November.<\/p>\n \u201cHe\u2019s too extreme and he\u2019s too tied to Trump, whose popularity continues to decline,\u201d Mr. O\u2019Rourke said.<\/p>\n Bobby Pulido, a moderate Democrat and Latin Grammy Award-winning Tejano singer who is running for Congress in South Texas, said that he thought the race would be competitive. \u201cThe Rio Grande Valley has conservative voters that are not necessarily MAGA,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd Paxton is definitely a MAGA candidate.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Talarico was quick to extend an invitation to Mr. Cornyn\u2019s supporters on Tuesday night, thanking the senator for his service to the state and telling his backers in a social media post<\/a> that they have \u201ca place\u201d in his campaign.<\/p>\n A record-setting race is about to get more expensive.<\/p>\n After waging the most expensive Senate primary campaign in the country\u2019s recent history \u2014 with $128 million worth of ads run in the Republican contest \u2014 both sides are preparing for a general election contest that strategists estimate could cost tens of millions of dollars more.<\/p>\n Mr. Talarico has proved himself to be a prodigious fund-raiser, raising about $40.2 million from September through the end of March. Mr. Paxton, who is polarizing even among Texas Republicans, has struggled to meet his own financial goals for the primary race. He fell far short of the $20 million he previously suggested<\/a> he would need to unseat Mr. Cornyn.<\/p>\n But even as he was heavily outspent, Mr. Paxton was able to cruise to victory in the primary.<\/p>\n Some Republicans supporting Mr. Cornyn had warned that nominating Mr. Paxton would require the party to spend millions more to defend a seat they had previously seen as safe \u2014 diverting money from other competitive races around the country.<\/p>\n Talarico has work to do with Black voters.<\/p>\n Black voters, who are the most loyal constituency in the Democratic coalition, overwhelmingly backed Mr. Talarico\u2019s opponent, Representative Jasmine Crockett, in the March primary.<\/p>\n Since then, Mr. Talarico has taken steps to reach out to Black voters. He attended the Chicago funeral for the Rev. Jesse Jackson and ate tacos<\/a> in Austin with former President Barack Obama. He gave the commencement address<\/a> at Paul Quinn College, a historically Black college in Dallas. And he met<\/a> with Opal Lee, the 99-year-old voting rights activist who led the movement<\/a> to make Juneteenth a federal holiday.<\/p>\n But to Ms. Crockett, Mr. Talarico\u2019s public emphasis on appealing to moderate Republicans who are repelled by Mr. Paxton and Mr. Trump has come at the expense of talking to her supporters across the state.<\/p>\n \u201cHe is struggling with some of our consistent Black voters,\u201d she said Tuesday. \u201cI am pretty doubtful that infrequent Black voters will be motivated, as I\u2019m not convinced that they are a target. The target seemingly has been disaffected MAGA.\u201d<\/p>\n Talarico has baggage \u2026<\/p>\n Already, Republicans have spent weeks positioning Mr. Talarico \u2014 or \u201cTala-freak-o\u201d as some G.O.P. officials and operatives have tried to brand him \u2014 as culturally out-of-touch with Texas voters.<\/p>\n They\u2019ve blanketed podcasts, social media platforms and right-wing media outlets with video clips of him using the story of Jesus Christ\u2019s conception to defend abortion rights, saying \u201cGod is nonbinary,\u201d supporting transgender rights and warning of the dangers of \u201cradicalized white men.\u201d<\/p>\n An ad released<\/a> on Tuesday night by a group affiliated with the conservative Club for Growth offered a new slogan to describe Mr. Talarico: \u201cWoke weirdo for Senate.\u201d In his victory night remarks, Mr. Paxton tried a few more Trumpian-style nicknames, deriding Mr. Talarico as \u201cTofu Talarico\u201d and \u201csix-gender Jimmy James.\u201d<\/p>\n The effort is an attempt to cast Mr. Talarico, who has made his faith a centerpiece of his campaign, as too liberal in a state where evangelical Christian voters hold considerable sway.<\/p>\n Mr. Talarico\u2019s aides have said that Republicans are taking some of his remarks out of context.<\/a> But Mr. Talarico has stood by many of his comments, while regretting how he expressed some of them.<\/p>\n